5430 NW 46th Lane Rd · Ocala, FL 34482

$289,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,505 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $192/sqft · 10% below area Est $321k · 10% under $498/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available for WEC Winter Spectacular 2026 or annual. Located within the gated community of Ocala Preserve and conveniently located near The World Equestrian Center. Offering a 2023 built Astor model 3 bedrooms 2 bath 2 car garage. The home is fully furnished and turnkey to make your move seamless! As you walk into the open floor plan you are welcomed by natural light and high ceilings. The laundry room and garage are just off the entry way for convenience. The kitchen is open to the living area and features eat in and formal dinning options. Primary room has on suite bath, massive walk in closet, and lovely green views of a majestic oak tree. Ocala Preserve is one of Ocala's most exquisite resort-style living.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open floor plan
• Natural light

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• HIGH CEILINGS
• TURNKEY
• MASSIVE WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,620/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 282% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,431 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,694
• List price: $289,500
• Delta: -9.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5472 NW 46th Lane Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,505 (0%)	8mo	$264,900	$176	92
5268 NW 48th Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+3%)	3mo	$215,000	$139	85
5463 NW 56th Ter	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-2%)	1mo	$292,000	$198	71
5585 NW 56th Ter	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-2%)	2mo	$295,000	$200	67
5217 NW 43rd Lane Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (+4%)	15mo	$262,990	$168	67
5200 NW 54th Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	14mo	$309,900	$198	55
5320 NW 56th Ter	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-7%)	16mo	$264,000	$189	54
4802 NW 39th Street Rd	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (+4%)	1mo	$256,150	$164	53
5430 NW 55th Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-8%)	10mo	$247,000	$178	52
5632 NW 57th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-12%)	8mo	$239,900	$180	43
6086 NW 53rd Street Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-12%)	11mo	$239,900	$180	38
5668 NW 57 St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-12%)	19mo	$239,900	$180	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-62,288
• Equity at exit: $43,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-27,833
• Equity at exit: $25,031

Cash invested: $81,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,518
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,769/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$498
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,208

Max offer price $207,431

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,375
• Closing costs: $8,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5416 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,300	$1.45	14d	1	0.02mi
5347 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$2,550	$1.64	21d	1	0.09mi
5358 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	21d	1	0.10mi
5389 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$2,300	$1.48	21d	1	0.10mi
5375 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1565	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.10mi
5254 NW 43rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,500	$2.03	21d	1	0.14mi
5521 NW 45th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,600	$1.40	14d	1	0.14mi
5293 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$2,450	$1.58	21d	1	0.16mi
5252 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	21d	1	0.18mi
5227 NW 46th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.20mi
5237 NW 48th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$4,500	$2.90	21d	1	0.21mi
4395 NW 55th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,700	$1.46	21d	1	0.25mi
4342 NW 55th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,600	$1.20	14d	1	0.28mi
5530 NW 40th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,000	$1.23	21d	1	0.45mi
5391 NW 55th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,650	$1.24	21d	1	0.50mi
4122 NW 48th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1816	$1,999	$1.10	14d	1	0.61mi
4932 NW 39th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,700	$1.33	21d	1	0.65mi
4743 NW 39th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	21d	1	0.75mi
4859 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1666	$2,495	$1.50	21d	1	0.78mi
4958 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1998	$3,000	$1.50	21d	1	0.79mi
5423 NW 35th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$3,200	$1.93	21d	1	0.80mi
4111 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,300	$1.53	14d	1	0.81mi
4110 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,400	$1.49	14d	1	0.82mi
4078 NW 44th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	21d	1	0.88mi
5191 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,400	$1.82	21d	1	0.92mi
5471 NW 34th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,900	$2.20	21d	1	0.92mi
3384 NW 54th Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1722	$2,300	$1.34	21d	1	0.95mi
5048 NW 35th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,900	$1.22	14d	1	0.96mi
5361 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1318	$2,500	$1.90	21d	1	0.98mi
5333 NW 33rd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,300	$1.68	14d	1	0.98mi
3335 NW 52nd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.5	1318	$2,500	$1.90	21d	1	0.99mi
6175 NW 59th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,745	$1.26	21d	1	1.12mi
5401 NW 63rd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,695	$0.89	14d	1	1.19mi
5353 N US Highway 27 Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1169	$2,045	$1.75	21d	1	1.22mi
5907 NW 64th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1313	$1,699	$1.29	21d	1	1.32mi
6425 NW 62nd Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,000	$2.22	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $498 · $5,976/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,500 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,500 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,500 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,500 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,500 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,500 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,500 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,500 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,500 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,500 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,500 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,500 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,500 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,500 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $289,500 Active 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    Available for WEC Winter Spectacular 2026 or annual. Located within the gated community of Ocala Preserve and conveniently located near The World Equestrian Center. Offering a 2023 built Astor model 3 bedrooms 2 bath 2 car garage. The home is fully furnished and turnkey to make your move seamless! As you walk into the open floor plan you are welcomed by natural light and high ceilings. The laundry room and garage are just off the entry way for convenience. The kitchen is open to the living area and features eat in and formal dinning options. Primary room has on suite bath, massive walk in closet, and lovely green views of a majestic oak tree. Ocala Preserve is one of Ocala's most exquisite resort-style living.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $2,450
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $2,500
19. 2025-09-10
    historical $4,500
20. 2025-08-15
    listed $4,500
21. 2025-08-06
    historical
22. 2025-08-06
    historical
23. 2025-08-02
    historical $2,100
24. 2025-04-26
    price $2,100
25. 2025-04-25
    listed $299,000 Active
26. 2025-04-25
    listed $299,000 Active
27. 2025-04-05
    historical
28. 2025-02-24
    listed $2,300
29. 2024-12-23
    historical
30. 2024-06-12
    historical $2,600
31. 2024-04-12
    listed $2,600
32. 2024-04-05
    listed $371,000 Active
33. 2024-04-04
    listed $371,000 Active
34. 2023-05-17
    soldstatus $258,990 Closed
35. 2023-04-19
    status Pending
36. 2023-04-06
    price $263,990
37. 2023-03-14
    price $268,990
38. 2023-02-24
    price $270,185
39. 2023-02-22
    price $285,185
40. 2023-01-17
    price $289,990
41. 2023-01-05
    price $294,990
42. 2022-12-13
    price $300,185
43. 2022-11-22
    price $309,990
44. 2022-10-12
    price $315,185
45. 2022-10-04
    price $317,185
46. 2022-09-27
    listed $322,185 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,769 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,769 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,217
• − Property taxes: −$4,769
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,515
• − Management: −$2,515
• − HOA: −$5,976
• − Depreciation: −$8,422
• Taxable loss: −$10,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,502
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal. The kitchen and bathrooms could benefit from minor updates to enhance their functionality and appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Resale Kitchen appliances and minor repairs — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality
• Resale Bathroom updates and minor repairs — Modernizes bathrooms and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances and minor repairs — Modernizes kitchen and improves functionality ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates and minor repairs — Modernizes bathrooms and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $289,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $2,450 STELLARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $2,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Rental Removed $4,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed for Rent $4,500 STELLARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-02 Rental Removed $2,100 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $2,100 STELLARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listed $299,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-05 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-02-24 Listed for Rent $2,300 STELLARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Rental Removed $2,600 STELLARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $2,600 STELLARMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed $371,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed $371,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-17 Sold (MLS) $258,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed $263,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-14 Price Changed $268,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-24 Price Changed $270,185 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-22 Price Changed $285,185 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-17 Price Changed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-05 Price Changed $294,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $300,185 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-22 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-12 Price Changed $315,185 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-04 Price Changed $317,185 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-27 Listed $322,185 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+52.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,769 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.