5574 Providence Church Rd · Ferrum, VA 24088

$83,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1978 1.07 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

Key facts

• 1.07 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric heat pump
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981
• Construction: Built in 1981
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Approximately 1.07-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric) for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Carpet, laminate, and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.5% in Ferrum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#331 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sontag Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 241 students, 76% FRL); Benjamin Franklin Middle (math 64% / reading 72%, grade A-, #94 of 342 statewide, top 28%, 1,397 students, 74% FRL); Franklin County High (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,904 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 45% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $83,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.03%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $14,960
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $49,608
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24088

• Home prices YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $687

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $83,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $83,000 Active
3. 2023-08-08
   soldstatus $210,000 Closed 300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (300 chars)

   Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

4. 2023-08-08
   soldstatus $210,000

   Show marketing remark (300 chars)

   Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

5. 2023-07-06
   status Pending 300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (300 chars)

   Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

6. 2023-05-11
   price $210,000 300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (300 chars)

   Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

7. 2023-04-21
   price $215,000 300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (300 chars)

   Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

8. 2023-04-06
   price $220,000 300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (300 chars)

   Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

9. 2023-03-20
   listed $225,000 Active 300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (300 chars)

   Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

10. 2023-02-28
    historical $225,000 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Welcome home. Great ranch style home only 6 miles away from Rocky Mount. This home features 4 bedrooms two on the main level and two non traditional bedrooms in the basement and one full bath on the main level. This recently renovated home with just over an acre is just waiting for the right family.

11. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus $84,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    First time buyer, better than rent. Vinyl sided ranch. Six miles from Rocky Mount, good location. Spacious one acre lot, two bedrooms, full bath and a partially finished, full basement. Heat Pump new in 2015 and central air. Two car detached garage. Range, washer/dryer and dehumidifier convey as is. New storm door purchased but not installed. Buyer and Buyer's Agent to verify all information. Property sold as is, Seller to make no repairs.

12. 2019-05-03
    soldstatus $84,990
13. 2019-01-23
    listed $84,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    First time buyer, better than rent. Vinyl sided ranch. Six miles from Rocky Mount, good location. Spacious one acre lot, two bedrooms, full bath and a partially finished, full basement. Heat Pump new in 2015 and central air. Two car detached garage. Range, washer/dryer and dehumidifier convey as is. New storm door purchased but not installed. Buyer and Buyer's Agent to verify all information. Property sold as is, Seller to make no repairs.

14. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus $70,000
15. 2014-10-21
    soldstatus $70,000
16. 2014-10-21
    soldstatus $70,000
17. 2013-11-19
    listed $69,900
18. 2013-11-19
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $4,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $4,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101440
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,093
• Composite: 59.5/100
• National rank: #921
• State rank: #24 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ferrum

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #12612

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,999

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,242 people
• By 2030: 55,742 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 53,669 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 50,291 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 42,395 · -24.6%
• By 2100: 32,981 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.9% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -22.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.1 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+28.6 2008: R+22.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.79%
• Current HPI: 208.5982
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+18.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $83,000 MLSRV
• 2023-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-08 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MLSRV
• 2023-07-06 Pending — MLSRV
• 2023-05-11 Price Changed $210,000 MLSRV
• 2023-04-21 Price Changed $215,000 MLSRV
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed $220,000 MLSRV
• 2023-03-20 Listed $225,000 MLSRV
• 2023-02-28 Coming Soon $225,000 MLSRV
• 2019-05-06 Sold (MLS) $84,990 MLSRV
• 2019-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $84,990 Public Records
• 2019-01-23 Listed $84,990 MLSRV
• 2014-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-21 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MLSRV
• 2014-10-21 Sold (MLS) $70,000 LMLS
• 2013-11-19 Listed $69,900 MLSRV
• 2013-11-19 Listed $69,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.