25306 Crab Aly W #1506 · Long Neck, DE 19966

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1988 Average condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ground rent approximately $936.56 per month with about 11 years remaining; Ground rent term showing 7 years remaining in separate ground rent field; Property in Federal Flood Zone AE6; Pets allowed (cats and dogs OK)
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment; Annual ground rent noted in income/expense list
• HOA & community: Community pool; Ground rent exists (paid annually)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway with four driveway spaces (total of 4 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; 100 amp electric service
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Land lease ownership; Building not winterized
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built date per assessor
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Split rail fencing; Gazebo; Community in-ground pool; Private road; blacktop surface; Outside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Level entry to main living area; Not furnished; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-738/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (4.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $190k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Long Neck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 865 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,097 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $493,271
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34523 Morning Side Dr #1552	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,220 (+2%)	1mo	$339,000	$153	86
25468 Crab Aly W #21282	0.24mi	3/2.0	2,019 (-7%)	8mo	$143,000	$71	70
1 Baypoint Rd	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,180 (+0%)	10mo	$565,000	$259	66
285 Pond Rd	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,142 (-1%)	4mo	$505,000	$236	66
25776 Hallmark St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (-5%)	21mo	$190,000	$92	40
58 Creek Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (-8%)	23mo	$455,000	$227	33
303 Pond Rd	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,900 (-13%)	22mo	$450,000	$237	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,848
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-34,975
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19966

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 865
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,324

Max offer price $190,097

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $199,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $199,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$6,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$913
• After-tax cash flow: $175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

A moderate rehab project is needed to improve the home's curb appeal and interior condition, with a focus on exterior siding, interior paint, and kitchen cabinets.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Light blue siding shows some discoloration
• Minor interior paint — Painted walls show some wear
• Minor kitchen cabinets — Standard cabinets show some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding and trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and value
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Light blue siding shows some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Painted walls show some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen cabinets · Standard cabinets show some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding and trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Long Neck

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #8720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sussex County · 82,708 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 35,884
• Household income: $78,305
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.26%
• Current HPI: 268.5609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $199,000 BRIGHT MLS