395 Arrowhead Dr · Goreville, IL 62939

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2005 Fair condition 0.62 ac lot Est $149k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for the lake life? Come check out this great 3 bedroom home. The large, new deck allows for enjoying your coffee or other beverage. Well maintained with newer washer and dryer. Call today for a private showing.

Key facts

• Community boat docks
• Lake rights
• Gated boat ramps

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS
• GATED BOAT RAMPS
• COMMUNITY BOAT DOCKS
• EAGLE POINT BAY SUBDIVISION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel numbers on file
• HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community amenities include lake access

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single manufactured home; Fee simple ownership; Age: approximately 21–25 years; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Water view; Water rights

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eating area with island
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (13 x 15) with full bath; Bedroom on main level (13 x 9); Bedroom on main level (15 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Ceramic tile in kitchen and laundry
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Kitchen/dining combo; Eating area with island
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (5 x 6) with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.3% in Goreville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#298 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Goreville CUD 1 (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #337 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Goreville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #850 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 452 students, 0% FRL); Goreville High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 172 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.98%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,608
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2255 Eagle Point Bay Rd	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,184 (+3%)	7mo	$153,000	$129	51
150 John Able Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,271 (+10%)	10mo	$164,200	$129	50
13537 S Egypt Shores Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,009 (-12%)	10mo	$229,000	$227	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,437
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $21,717
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62939

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $279	+0% $249	+5% $218	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $206	+0% $249	+5% $292	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $271	base $249	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $89,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   remarks 577-char remark
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 452-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $1,667
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$400
• After-tax cash flow: $2,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The home is located in a desirable area with lake access, but it needs some cosmetic and structural improvements to be move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated cabinetry
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration
• Minor interior walls — light-colored walls, some discoloration
• Minor landscaping — some overgrown grass

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen
• Resale repair exterior siding — improves home's appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated cabinetry	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · light-colored walls, some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · some overgrown grass	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Resale repair exterior siding — improves home's appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goreville CUD 1
• NCES district ID: 1700014
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,298
• Composite: 21.52/100
• National rank: #8317
• State rank: #337 of 620 in IL

Livability — Goreville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #5712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,072
• Population (ZIP): 3,072

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,355 people
• By 2030: 13,579 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 13,849 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 13,880 · +3.9%
• By 2075: 13,759 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 11,536 · -13.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Danish 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.3% · R 78.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.6pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+42.1 2008: R+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.34%
• Current HPI: 159.748
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+87.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $89,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-26 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-26 Sold (MLS) $60,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-21 Listed $62,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-21 Listed $62,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-25 Sold (MLS) $44,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-25 Sold (MLS) $44,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-15 Listed $47,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-15 Listed $47,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid