242 Kings Row Ln · Jarrell, TX 76537

$199,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · MultiFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $148/sqft · at area comps Est $204k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

The Gerson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion March 2026. Estimated Completion March 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12598% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $173,761 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,490
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -2.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-44,378
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-66,937
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $184,163

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	43d	1	0.20mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	23d	1	0.21mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	0.22mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	43d	1	0.22mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	20d	1	0.23mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	43d	1	0.25mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	2d	1	0.28mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,775	$1.11	17d	1	0.34mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	43d	1	0.43mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	14d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,990 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,990 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    historical $1,575
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $1,575
16. 2026-04-09
    historical $1,575
17. 2026-03-28
    price $1,575
18. 2026-03-25
    listed $1,600
19. 2026-03-25
    historical $1,600
20. 2026-03-24
    listed $1,600
21. 2026-02-06
    price $199,990 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    The Gerson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion March 2026. Estimated Completion March 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

22. 2026-02-02
    status Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    The Gerson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion March 2026. Estimated Completion March 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

23. 2026-01-27
    status Pending 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    The Gerson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion March 2026. Estimated Completion March 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

24. 2026-01-17
    price $213,990 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    The Gerson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion March 2026. Estimated Completion March 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

25. 2026-01-09
    listed $209,990 Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    The Gerson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion March 2026. Estimated Completion March 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $-183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with a good condition exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Rental Removed $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $1,575 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $1,575 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed for Rent $1,600 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-25 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-24 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $199,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $213,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $209,990 Unlock MLS