242 Kings Row Ln · Jarrell, TX 76537

$199,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 205 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $148/sqft · at area comps Est $209k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gerson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion March 2026. Estimated Completion March 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 92% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12598% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $175,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,120
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -4.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	2mo	$220,990	$163	96
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,354 (0%)	2mo	$217,990	$161	94
510 Jones Beach Cv	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	2mo	$212,990	$151	86
120 Cattle Queen Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	0mo	$229,990	$163	84
513 Texas Angel Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	0mo	$239,990	$170	81
444 Jones Beach Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-10%)	2mo	$188,990	$156	78
512 Texas Angel Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-6%)	1mo	$195,000	$153	76
473 Jones Beach Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	1mo	$207,249	$140	74
405 Jones Beach Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	2mo	$212,990	$144	71
518 Mccloud Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-12%)	1mo	$169,999	$143	70
308 Rancho Del Cielo Loop	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+10%)	1mo	$208,749	$141	69
112 Hasty Heart Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+11%)	0mo	$219,990	$147	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-43,284
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,750
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $215,250 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 915
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $186,801

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-22	+0% $-91	+5% $-160	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-161	+0% $-91	+5% $-22	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-40	base $-91	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	93d	1	0.20mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	73d	1	0.21mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	53d	1	0.22mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	93d	1	0.22mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	69d	1	0.23mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	93d	1	0.25mi
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	17d	1	0.25mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	52d	1	0.28mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,750	$1.44	34d	1	0.31mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	41d	1	0.34mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	47d	1	0.34mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	93d	1	0.43mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	64d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $199,990 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $199,990 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $199,990 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $199,990 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $199,990 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,990 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,990 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $199,990 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $199,990 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,990 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,990 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,990 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,990 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $199,990 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,990 Active 184 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,990 Active 183 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,990 Active 182 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $199,990 Active 181 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,990 Active 180 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,990 Active 179 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,990 Active 178 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,990 Active 177 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,990 Active 176 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,990 Active 175 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,990 Active 173 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,990 Active 172 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,990 Active 171 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 169 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 168 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,990 Active 167 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,990 Active 166 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,990 Active 165 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,990 Active 164 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,990 Active 163 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $199,990 Active 162 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $199,990 Active 160 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $199,990 Active 158 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,990 Active 157 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,990 Active 154 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,990 Active 153 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,990 Active 152 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,990 Active 151 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,990 Active 149 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,990 Active 145 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,990 Active 144 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,990 Active 143 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,990 Active 140 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 139 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 138 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,073
• After-tax cash flow: $-20/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with a good condition exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Rental Removed $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,575 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $1,575 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $1,575 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed for Rent $1,600 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-25 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-24 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $199,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $213,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $209,990 Unlock MLS