33629 Fox Hills Dr · Climax Springs, MO 65078

$17,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 410 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1969 0.66 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-Upper Opportunity on Wooded . 63 Acre Lot Back on market at no fault of seller! 1969 single wide manufactured home situated on a . 63 acre wooded lot offering a private, tucked-away setting. Property includes a covered front deck, small storage shed, and an owned propane tank. The home is in need of significant repair, including roof and interior ceiling damage, and is being sold as-is, including remaining contents. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers seeking an affordable property to renovate or repurpose. Please note: road access is unimproved/rough. Buyers are encouraged to verify all aspects of the property, including condition, utilities, and access. Great opportunity for

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Owned propane tank
• Covered front deck

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• SMALL STORAGE SHED
• OWNED PROPANE TANK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking on gravel (no garage)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Metal siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Deck (covered)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Cooktop, Range, Refrigerator; No fireplace; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($876 rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.9% vs local median 0.8% in Climax Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#910 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Morgan County R-I (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #173 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($121 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $17,237 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 141.52%
• DSCR: 7.30
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.73×
• Total profit: $42,794
• Equity at exit: $11,987

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.77×
• Total profit: $96,882
• Equity at exit: $22,643

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65078

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $185/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $145

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $583	+0% $578	+5% $573	+10% $568
Rent	-10% $509	-5% $543	+0% $578	+5% $613	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $582	base $578	+0.5pp $573	+1.0pp $569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $17,500 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $17,500 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $17,500 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,500 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,500 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $17,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,500 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $17,500 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $17,500 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $17,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    status $17,500 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $17,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $185 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $185 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$185
• − Insurance: −$88
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$841
• − Management: −$841
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $7,072
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,697
• After-tax cash flow: $5,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,188
• Composite: 32.47/100
• National rank: #5714
• State rank: #173 of 324 in MO

Livability — Climax Springs

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #910
• US rank: #25720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,716

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,779 people
• By 2030: 17,891 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 16,227 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 14,735 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 11,433 · -39.1%
• By 2100: 7,717 · -58.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.7) · D 19.7% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -59.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.7 2020: R+58.2 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+34.1 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.88%
• Current HPI: 164.4454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — LOBR
• 2026-05-09 Listed $17,500 LOBR

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $185 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.