47114 188th Ave · Shamrock, MN 55760

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1960 Fair condition 0.36 ac lot $137/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

A rare opportunity to own two "cabins" on a beautiful lot with views of Lake Minnewawa. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, investment property, or your next renovation project, this property offers incredible potential. Both cabins are being sold As-Is and are ideal for a buyer with vision and a willingness to put in some work. Owned by the same family for many years, these cabins have been the backdrop for countless memories and are now ready for a new chapter. Enjoy the peaceful setting, lake views, and convenient access to all that the Minnewawa area has to offer. Bring your ideas and restore these cabins to their full potential while creating lasting memories for y

Key facts

• Lake views
• Two cabins
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• TWO CABINS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($140/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mcgregor Public School District (rural): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #243 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Aitkin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Aitkin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,612 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,136
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -54.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $60,611
• Equity at exit: $99,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $177,934
• Equity at exit: $213,512

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55760

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    historical
17. 2025-12-19
    listed $109,900 Active
18. 2025-11-24
    historical
19. 2025-08-27
    price $109,900
20. 2025-05-23
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$937
• − Management: −$937
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable loss: −$1,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$411
• After-tax cash flow: $551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property presents as a moderate renovation project with dated interiors and some landscaping issues. A comprehensive renovation focusing on the kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, and paint can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and in poor condition
• Major flooring — dated and in poor condition
• Major interior paint — paint appears worn and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathrooms can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both flooring replacement — replacing dated flooring with modern options can significantly increase both resale and rental value
• Both paint job — painting the interior can significantly increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · paint appears worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathrooms can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both flooring replacement — replacing dated flooring with modern options can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint job — painting the interior can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgregor Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2719170
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,225
• Composite: 31.35/100
• National rank: #5996
• State rank: #243 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shamrock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,831

Population outlook (Aitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,340 people
• By 2030: 13,514 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 11,928 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 10,804 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 9,555 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 8,380 · -41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Native American 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Lithuanian 6% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.8% · R 64.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.76%
• Current HPI: 231.677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Listed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid