1 Wild Ridge/ Sawgrass · Black Jack, MO 63033

$334,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,491 sqft · SingleFamily · 1490 Days on market

$13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Now Open! To Be Built Home ready to personalize into your dream home! BASE PRICE & PHOTOS are for 4BR, 2.5BA Sawgrass 1 ½ Story. Pricing will vary depending on various interior/exterior selections. Highlight of this floor plan is the two story great rm, w/ available window wall or fireplace. Luxurious kitchen, breakfast area, corner pantry, w/ available kitchen island or expanded plan and formal dining rm. Master suite on main level w/ walk in closet, & master bath incl. a soaking tub, & shower. Second level can host 3 beds, and optional loft area and/or bonus rm. Main floor laundry & 2-car garage. Enjoy peace of mind with builders warranty & incredibl

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1490 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $160

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; Private ownership; One and a half levels
• Construction: New construction; Concrete basement
• Exterior features: Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the main level; 3 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; One full and one half bath on the main level; One full bath on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Primary bedroom on main level; Tilt-in windows; Concrete basement
• Laundry & utility: Forced air heating (natural gas)

🏗️ New construction. The $334,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $363,988.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-821 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (35.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jury Elem. (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 420 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1490 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,085 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1490 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.67%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,988
• List price: $334,900
• Delta: -7.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Wild Ridge/ Sawgrass	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,500 (+0%)	4mo	$424,439	$170	96
23 Wild Ridge Sawgrass	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,491 (0%)	20mo	$398,127	$160	84
2 Silverbrook Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,428 (-2%)	9mo	$279,900	$115	70
4325 Tanglebrook Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,688 (+8%)	5mo	$299,900	$112	67
40 Hiddenbrook Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,494 (+0%)	15mo	$249,900	$100	66
8 Canoebrook Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,717 (+9%)	4mo	$255,900	$94	64
11 Van Crest Ln	0.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,412 (-3%)	13mo	$202,000	$84	58
20 Hiddenbrook Dr	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,800 (+12%)	7mo	$300,000	$107	52
3650 Estates Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,511 (+1%)	9mo	$189,900	$76	49
4223 Miletus Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,700 (+8%)	14mo	$157,400	$58	36
21 Rolling Hills Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,812 (+13%)	18mo	$230,000	$82	30
4 Roan Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,789 (+12%)	14mo	$275,000	$99	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $156,216
• Equity at exit: $327,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $526,164
• Equity at exit: $707,149

Cash invested: $101,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,161 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,909
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$455 /mo · $5,460/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,201

Max offer price $245,135

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,997
• Closing costs: $10,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4440 Parker Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,711	$0.90	1d	1	0.38mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,354	$1.10	1d	17	0.44mi
13538 Paddock Ridge Ct Black Jack, MO	5.0	4.0	2789	$2,500	$0.90	10d	1	0.55mi
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	21d	1	1.23mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	21d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $334,900 Active 1490 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $334,900 Active 1489 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $334,900 Active 1488 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $334,900 Active 1487 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,900 Active 1485 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $334,900 Active 1484 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $334,900 Active 1481 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $334,900 Active 1480 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $334,900 Active 1479 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $334,900 Active 1476 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $334,900 Active 1475 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $334,900 Active 1474 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $334,900 Active 1473 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $334,900 Active 1472 DOM
15. 2024-02-02
    price $334,900
16. 2022-06-06
    price $329,900
17. 2022-05-20
    listed $319,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,389
• − Property taxes: −$5,460
• − Insurance: −$1,820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$10,589
• Taxable loss: −$16,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,992
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+4.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $334,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-06 Price Changed $329,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-20 Listed $319,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid