117 Rising Cedar Ln · Hockley, TX 77447

$239,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,600 sqft lot Garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Dining room
• Great room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• GOURMET ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• UPSTAIRS GAMEROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $239,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,996.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,094 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,996
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -21.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+0%)	3mo	$329,900	$164	89
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+2%)	3mo	$314,990	$154	86
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+2%)	5mo	$314,990	$154	85
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+2%)	7mo	$303,990	$149	81
121 Rising Cedar Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,858 (-7%)	3mo	$279,990	$151	75
23530 Hargrave Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,115 (+6%)	0mo	$849,900	$402	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-78,230
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-122,336
• Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.8 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $290,990 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +3.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,731

Max offer price $254,652

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-243	+0% $-348	+5% $-453	+10% $-559
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-438	+0% $-348	+5% $-257	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-194	-0.5pp $-270	base $-348	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,249
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has associationAssociation fee $600 annuallyAssociation name: TBD

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionBuilt in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilder: Century Communities
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersKitchen/family room comboBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Has heatingHas cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryerTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $239,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $239,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $239,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $239,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-08-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-08-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 122 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 121 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 120 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on market $249,900 Active 113 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $274,900 Active 112 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $274,900 Active 111 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $274,900 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $274,900 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $274,900 Active 108 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $274,900 Active 107 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $284,900 Active 106 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $284,900 Active 105 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $284,900 Active 104 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $284,900 Active 103 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $284,900 Active 102 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $284,900 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $284,900 Active 99 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $284,900 Active 98 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $284,900 Active 97 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 96 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $284,900 Active 93 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $294,900 Active 91 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $294,900 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $294,900 Active 88 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $294,900 Active 86 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $294,900 Active 85 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $294,900 Active 84 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $294,900 Active 83 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $294,900 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$9,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Hampton two-story home is in good condition with an open-concept floor plan and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential for minor improvements to enhance its curb appeal and functionality, increasing its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Enhances the kitchen's functionality and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has associationAssociation fee $600 annuallyAssociation name: TBD

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionBuilt in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilder: Century Communities
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersKitchen/family room comboBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Has heatingHas cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryerTankless water heater

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $289,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $294,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $309,900 Zillow