117 Rising Cedar Ln · Magnolia, TX 77447

$294,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,600 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• 5,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee $600 annually; Association name: TBD

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction; Builder: Century Communities
• Exterior features: Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Quartz counters; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Low-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $294,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $323,131.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,421 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,131
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -8.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+2%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	89
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+2%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	88
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+2%)	4mo	$303,990	$149	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-85,203
• Equity at exit: $48,180

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-134,229
• Equity at exit: $27,938

Cash invested: $90,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,695
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,847/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,890

Max offer price $264,172

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,783
• Closing costs: $9,694
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $294,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $294,900 Active 368-char remark
15. 2026-04-29
    historical
16. 2026-02-26
    price $294,900

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

17. 2026-02-26
    price $294,900

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

18. 2026-02-07
    price $299,900
19. 2026-02-05
    price $299,900

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

20. 2026-02-05
    price $309,900

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

21. 2026-02-05
    price $299,900

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

22. 2026-01-06
    listed $309,900 Active
23. 2025-12-13
    listed $309,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    The Hampton two-story home is an open-concept floor plan featuring the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor. The gourmet island kitchen overlooks the great room and the dining room, creating a spacious entertaining area. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,100
• − Property taxes: −$4,847
• − Insurance: −$1,616
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,400
• Taxable loss: −$10,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,551
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Hampton two-story home is in good condition with an open-concept floor plan and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential for minor improvements to enhance its curb appeal and functionality, increasing its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Enhances the kitchen's functionality and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Enhances the kitchen's functionality and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $289,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $294,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $309,900 Zillow