463 Timbercrest Cir SE · Bolivia, NC
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +19.6/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +6.2/10.0
- 1% rule +5.6/10.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Schools +4.7/10.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$235,850
463 Timbercrest Cir SE · Bolivia, NC 28422
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,614 sqft · Townhouse
· 254 Days on market
Built 2025
2,657 sqft lot
2-car garage
$65/sqft
· 43% below area
Est $415k · 43% under
$80/mo HOA · 3% of rent
↓ 7% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
* MOVE IN READY * Experience coastal modern living at Autumn Trail in this brand new 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome, conveniently located 15-20 minutes from Oak Island and Holden Beach, with easy access to the historic waterfront town of Southport. Designed with versatility in mind, the open-concept floor plan features a desirable first-floor primary suite with high ceilings, a walk-in closet, and a private bath with quartz countertops and a 5-foot glass-enclosed shower. The kitchen is thoughtfully finished with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, crown and cap trim on the cabinets, a ceramic tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances.
Key facts
- Soft-close cabinets
- Granite countertops
- $80 HOA
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $236k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $236k).
- Recommended offer: $208k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Bolivia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
- Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 784 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer
$207,548
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.06% ✓
- Cap rate
- 7.68%
- Cash-on-cash
- 4.97%
- DSCR
- 1.22
- GRM
- 7.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $415,000
- List price
- $235,850
- Delta
- -43.17%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 5 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 471 Timbercrest Cir SE | 0.01mi | 4/2.5 | 3,614 (0%) | 3mo | $267,850 | $74 | 97 |
| 685 Breezewood Dr SE | 0.33mi | 4/3.5 | 2,873 (-20%) | 7mo | $640,000 | $223 | 50 |
| 774 Breezewood Dr SE | 0.49mi | 4/3.5 | 3,167 (-12%) | 4mo | $820,000 | $259 | 49 |
| 557 Hearthside Dr SE | 0.38mi | 4/3.0 | 2,949 (-18%) | 9mo | $774,500 | $263 | 48 |
| 584 Stanwood Dr SE | 0.39mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 3,014 (-17%) | 3mo | $650,000 | $216 | 48 |
| 627 Ashbury Dr SE | 0.59mi | 4/3.0 | 3,042 (-16%) | 4mo | $710,000 | $233 | 42 |
| 807 Breezewood Dr SE | 0.50mi | 3/3.5 (-1) | 3,014 (-17%) | 11mo | $779,000 | $258 | 34 |
| 420 Cypress Ridge Dr SE | 1.15mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 3,133 (-13%) | 3mo | $616,500 | $197 | 34 |
| 968 Ashburton Rd SE | 0.68mi | 4/3.5 | 3,050 (-16%) | 8mo | $699,999 | $230 | 33 |
| 1420 Whisperwood Ct SE | 1.28mi | 4/3.0 | 3,146 (-13%) | 10mo | $650,000 | $207 | 33 |
| 483 Sea Captain Ln SW | 1.30mi | 4/3.5 | 3,074 (-15%) | 7mo | $430,000 | $140 | 31 |
| 1449 Turning Leaf Ln SE | 1.30mi | 3/3.5 (-1) | 2,737 (-24%) | 3mo | $615,000 | $225 | 28 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -8.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.69×
- Total profit
- $-20,717
- Equity at exit
- $35,166
10-year hold
- IRR
- 1.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.07×
- Total profit
- $4,737
- Equity at exit
- $20,392
Cash invested: $66,038 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State North Carolina
- 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.
Seller's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 0 active · 3 under contract
- Months of supply
- 0.0 mo
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 28422
- Home prices YoY
- -23.8%
- Active inventory
- 784
- Price-to-rent
- 7.8×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,511 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,237
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$295 /mo · $3,538/yr
- Insurance
- −$98
- HOA
- −$80
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$527
- Net cashflow
- $273
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,164
Max offer price
$235,850
Occupancy floor
84%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $436 | -5% $355 | +0% $273 | +5% $192 | +10% $110 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $75 | -5% $174 | +0% $273 | +5% $373 | +10% $472 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $392 | -0.5pp $333 | base $273 | +0.5pp $212 | +1.0pp $150 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $58,962
- Closing costs
- $7,076
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Located in the Autumn Trail subdivisionDirections: Located just east of Highway 17 and Route 211
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association with annual fee of $960 (about $80/month)Association amenities: Other
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garageOn-site parking (2 spaces total)
- Utilities
- Public waterSewer connectedWater connected
- Home design
- TownhouseTwo storiesEntry level: 1
- Construction
- Vinyl siding and frame constructionBuilt on a slab foundationNew construction
- Exterior features
- Covered porchNo fencingShingle roofHas a viewPets allowed
Interior
- Kitchen
- Electric ovenDishwasherMicrowaveGarbage disposal
- Flooring
- CarpetLaminateVinyl
- Bathrooms
- Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Heat pump heatingElectric heatingHeat pump cooling
- Interior features
- Master bedroom located on the main floorWalk-in closet(s)High ceilingsPantry
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupElectric water heater
HOA detail $80/mo · $960/yr
- Likely covers
- water
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $235,850 Active 254 DOM
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2026-09-23days on market $235,850 Active 253 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $235,850 Active 252 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $235,850 Active 251 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $235,850 Active 250 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $235,850 Active 249 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $235,850 Active 248 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $235,850 Active 247 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $235,850 Active 246 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $235,850 Active 245 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $235,850 Active 244 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $235,850 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $235,850 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $235,850 Active 241 DOM
-
2026-09-06days on market $235,850 Active 235 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $235,850 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $235,850 Active 233 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $235,850 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $235,850 Active 229 DOM
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2026-08-29days on market $235,850 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $235,850 Active 227 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $235,850 Active 226 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $235,850 Active 224 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $235,850 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $235,850 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $235,850 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $235,850 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $235,850 Active 219 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $235,850 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $235,850 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $235,850 Active 216 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $235,850 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $235,850 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $235,850 Active 213 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $235,850 Active 212 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $235,850 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $235,850 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $235,850 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $235,850 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $235,850 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $235,850 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $235,850 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $235,850 Active 204 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $235,850 Active 203 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $235,850 Active 202 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $235,850 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $235,850 Active 197 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $235,850 Active 195 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $235,850 Active 193 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $235,850 Active 192 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $30,126
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,211
- − Property taxes
- −$3,538
- − Insurance
- −$1,179
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,410
- − Management
- −$2,410
- − HOA
- −$960
- − Depreciation
- −$6,861
- Taxable loss
- −$443
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$106
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,387/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos
95/100
None rehab
This move-in-ready townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to rent or sell.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the property more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
- Both Landscaping the front yard — Landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Virginia Williamson Elem
D
NC #417/1,410
Nat'l #12,785/41,679
Middle
Cedar Grove Middle
F
NC #305/475
Nat'l #8,059/14,009
High
South Brunswick High
C+
NC #216/535
Nat'l #3,588/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Brunswick County Schools
- NCES district ID
- 3700420
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▲ 4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 47% ▲ 4.00%
- Median HH income
- $47,494
- Composite
- 39.23/100
- National rank
- #4011
- State rank
- #82 of 178 in NC
D
Composite livability gradescore 59/100
Livability — Bolivia
- Score
- 59/100
- State rank
- #549
- US rank
- #20206
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living B
Crime B-
Employment F
Housing B-
Health & safety A+
User ratings F
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Brunswick County · 152,111 people
- City population
- 10,059
- Metro
- Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
- Population (ZIP)
- 10,059
- Household income
- $69,412
- Rent vs Own
Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 152,111 people
- By 2030
- 165,705 · +8.9%
- By 2040
- 188,494 · +23.9%
- By 2050
- 206,228 · +35.6%
- By 2075
- 237,876 · +56.4%
- By 2100
- 251,451 · +65.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (80%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 4%
Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -44.19%
- Current HPI
- 141.1956
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 26
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 2 | $213B |
|
||
| Retail | 2 | $95B |
|
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| Industrial Conglomerate | 1 | $38B |
|
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Utilities | 1 | $30B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 1 | $19B |
|
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Price history
-7.1% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-23 Price Changed $260,850 Hive MLS
- 2026-05-14 Price Changed $264,900 Hive MLS
- 2026-01-13 Listed $280,850 Hive MLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…