5217 Chaparral Dr · China Lake Acres, CA 93555

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1971 $59/sqft · 43% below area Est $148k · 43% under $128/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready home offering a spacious living room, separate family room, and dedicated dining area. The well-designed kitchen includes a pantry for extra storage. Generous guest bedroom and an expansive primary suite featuring double sinks in the en-suite bath. Enjoy outdoor living under the huge covered patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional features include a covered carport, fully fenced yard, and a 6x8 storage shed. Water is paid through HOA. "The property is under the Owner Occupant program. Buyer(s) occupying the property as primary residence are eligible to submit.

Key facts

• Separate family room
• Spacious living room
• Community pool

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• WELL-DESIGNED KITCHEN
• PANTRY FOR EXTRA STORAGE
• EXPANSIVE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $128; Community pool; Community basketball court; Management provided; Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Mobile home (double-wide); Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Foam roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Shed(s); RV/Boat storage; Landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range / Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range / Oven; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#642 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D, schools F, amenities F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $85k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.41%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,028
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -42.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5237 Ocotillo Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	1mo	$100,000	$65	84
5221 Ocotillo Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$81,000	$60	81
1631 N Chaparral Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	9mo	$59,000	$44	70
5234 Cholla Way	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	16mo	$87,000	$57	67
5229 Agave Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	5mo	$95,000	$76	65
1536 Saguaro St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$71,000	$53	64
1617 N Everett	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$199,000	$138	64
1544 N Charles St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$287,000	$214	56
1445 Everett St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-3%)	22mo	$170,500	$122	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $15,186
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $53,560
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93555

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$128
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,014

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1631 Chaparral Dr Unit PLACECHA1631 Ridgecrest, CA	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	3d	1	0.12mi
4423 Johnston Ave Unit D Ridgecrest, CA	2.0	1.0	968	$1,100	$1.14	3d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $128 · $1,536/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $84,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $89,900 Active 601-char remark
18. 2002-02-08
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$1,927
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − HOA: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $4,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $4,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,937
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6699
• State rank: #294 of 517 in CA

Livability — China Lake Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #20115

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: China Lake Acres, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,845
• Household income: $86,700
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.17%
• Current HPI: 380.5208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+107.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $84,900 SSMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $89,900 SSMLS
• 2002-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $805 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.