351 Thumper Dr · Ranson, WV 25438

$344,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2005 0.28 ac lot Est $477k · 28% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful well maintained Colonial, 3 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, Living room with Cathedral ceilings, Formal Dining Room, Eat-In Kitchen with Breakfast room with access to the deck. The fireplace is Gas but the current owners have never used the FP. 3 bedrooms and 2.5 Baths on 2nd floor. The basement is a walk upstairs. Finished basement with Family Room, Workout Room and a Full Bath. The yard is Fenced with a Privacy Fence - Wood. 2 Rear Wood Decks and Front Porch. This lovely home awaits you. Home Warranty.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Colonial home
• Briar run community

Tags

• COLONIAL HOME
• BRIAR RUN COMMUNITY
• FULL BASEMENT
• WALKOUT STAIRS
• 0.28-ACRE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $90 quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway and off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Building winterized; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Walkout full basement; Below-grade finished area

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the upper level (first upper level); Master bedroom
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on upper levels, 1 on lower level); 1 half bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Breakfast room; Has fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $344k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Ranson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,123 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $477,276
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1853 Flowing Springs Rd	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,590 (+1%)	5mo	$625,000	$241	74
363 Anthem St	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,365 (-8%)	3mo	$398,990	$169	53
73 Taft Ave	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	4mo	$441,990	$186	50
45 Taft Ave	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,365 (-8%)	6mo	$434,990	$184	49
135 Taft Ave	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	3mo	$468,990	$197	48
129 Taft Ave	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	4mo	$469,990	$198	48
117 Taft Ave	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	6mo	$474,990	$200	47
203 Taft Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	2mo	$418,200	$176	46
93 Taft Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,365 (-8%)	6mo	$398,990	$169	46
143 Taft Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	6mo	$463,990	$195	46
209 Taft Ave	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	3mo	$420,385	$177	45
217 Taft Ave	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,375 (-7%)	2mo	$423,885	$178	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $156,888
• Equity at exit: $309,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $485,838
• Equity at exit: $668,316

Cash invested: $96,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25438

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,804
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,250/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,846

Max offer price $259,631

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,000
• Closing costs: $10,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Cecily Way Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1998	$2,000	$1.00	12d	1	0.18mi
37 Cecily Way Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	2540	$2,100	$0.83	24d	1	0.19mi
112 Cecily Way Unit 112 Ranson, WV	3.0	4.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	5d	1	0.21mi
1247 Mare St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1985	$2,080	$1.05	24d	1	0.84mi
35 Short Branch Dr Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,200	$1.13	3d	1	1.08mi
271 Swan Field Ave Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,100	$1.18	3d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $344,000 Pending 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $344,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $344,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $344,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $344,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $344,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-02-27
   listed $344,000 Active
9. 2022-12-19
   soldstatus $360,000
10. 2022-08-26
    soldstatus $355,000
11. 2022-08-19
    soldstatus $355,000 Closed 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained Colonial, 3 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, Living room with Cathedral ceilings, Formal Dining Room, Eat-In Kitchen with Breakfast room with access to the deck. The fireplace is Gas but the current owners have never used the FP. 3 bedrooms and 2.5 Baths on 2nd floor. The basement is a walk upstairs. Finished basement with Family Room, Workout Room and a Full Bath. The yard is Fenced with a Privacy Fence - Wood. 2 Rear Wood Decks and Front Porch. This lovely home awaits you. Home Warranty.

12. 2022-07-17
    historical Active Under Contract 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained Colonial, 3 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, Living room with Cathedral ceilings, Formal Dining Room, Eat-In Kitchen with Breakfast room with access to the deck. The fireplace is Gas but the current owners have never used the FP. 3 bedrooms and 2.5 Baths on 2nd floor. The basement is a walk upstairs. Finished basement with Family Room, Workout Room and a Full Bath. The yard is Fenced with a Privacy Fence - Wood. 2 Rear Wood Decks and Front Porch. This lovely home awaits you. Home Warranty.

13. 2022-07-01
    listed $359,900 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Beautiful well maintained Colonial, 3 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, Living room with Cathedral ceilings, Formal Dining Room, Eat-In Kitchen with Breakfast room with access to the deck. The fireplace is Gas but the current owners have never used the FP. 3 bedrooms and 2.5 Baths on 2nd floor. The basement is a walk upstairs. Finished basement with Family Room, Workout Room and a Full Bath. The yard is Fenced with a Privacy Fence - Wood. 2 Rear Wood Decks and Front Porch. This lovely home awaits you. Home Warranty.

14. 2010-01-19
    soldstatus $150,000 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lots & Lots of house, This property is GREAT ! Dont miss this rare opportunity. This property has 2 car garage , finished basement, fireplace and a large yard and all at this low low price. Call today because it will be gone tomorrow ( For Real ). Property Sold as is because it's corporate owned, also sq footage and some other items extimated

15. 2010-01-19
    soldstatus $150,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lots & Lots of house, This property is GREAT ! Dont miss this rare opportunity. This property has 2 car garage , finished basement, fireplace and a large yard and all at this low low price. Call today because it will be gone tomorrow ( For Real ). Property Sold as is because it's corporate owned, also sq footage and some other items extimated

16. 2009-12-01
    status Contract

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lots & Lots of house, This property is GREAT ! Dont miss this rare opportunity. This property has 2 car garage , finished basement, fireplace and a large yard and all at this low low price. Call today because it will be gone tomorrow ( For Real ). Property Sold as is because it's corporate owned, also sq footage and some other items extimated

17. 2009-12-01
    historical 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lots & Lots of house, This property is GREAT ! Dont miss this rare opportunity. This property has 2 car garage , finished basement, fireplace and a large yard and all at this low low price. Call today because it will be gone tomorrow ( For Real ). Property Sold as is because it's corporate owned, also sq footage and some other items extimated

18. 2009-11-25
    listed $143,550 Active

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lots & Lots of house, This property is GREAT ! Dont miss this rare opportunity. This property has 2 car garage , finished basement, fireplace and a large yard and all at this low low price. Call today because it will be gone tomorrow ( For Real ). Property Sold as is because it's corporate owned, also sq footage and some other items extimated

19. 2009-11-25
    listed $143,550 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Lots & Lots of house, This property is GREAT ! Dont miss this rare opportunity. This property has 2 car garage , finished basement, fireplace and a large yard and all at this low low price. Call today because it will be gone tomorrow ( For Real ). Property Sold as is because it's corporate owned, also sq footage and some other items extimated

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,250 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,250 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,269
• − Property taxes: −$3,250
• − Insurance: −$1,720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$10,007
• Taxable loss: −$12,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,884
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranson, WV
• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 7,330
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 7,330
• Household income: $81,875
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.87%
• Current HPI: 352.707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+139.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $344,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $355,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $355,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-17 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $359,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-19 Sold (MLS) $150,000 MRIS
• 2010-01-19 Sold (MLS) $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-01 Pending — MRIS
• 2009-12-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-11-25 Listed $143,550 MRIS
• 2009-11-25 Listed $143,550 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,250 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.