Magnolia Bayou Plan · Dickinson, TX 77539

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily · 243 Days on market

Good condition $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautifully designed open-concept home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious kitchen featuring an expansive island-ideal for entertaining and everyday living. Enjoy the elegance of soaring 10-foot ceilings and thoughtfully designed living spaces. This property also includes an impressive 1,664 sq ft of enclosed storage and parking, providing ample space for vehicles, tools, and recreational gear.

Key facts

• Open-concept home
• Expansive island
• Enclosed storage

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT HOME
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE ISLAND
• SOARING 10-FOOT CEILINGS
• ENCLOSED STORAGE
• TWO COVERED PATIOS

🏗️ New construction. The $325,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $334,097.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (60.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (47.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (60.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#533 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Calder Road El (math 56% / reading 50%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 722 students, 59% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 844 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,013 (60.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.89%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,097
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -2.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3913 Peacock Isle Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,664 (0%)	4mo	$410,121	$246	94
1902 Peacock Isle Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,664 (0%)	5mo	$547,714	$329	93
3801 Peacock Isle Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,664 (0%)	5mo	$386,960	$233	89
3812 Amanda Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,633 (-2%)	2mo	$289,900	$178	86
1906 Ashlee Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+5%)	3mo	$349,618	$200	82
1902 Ashlee Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-14%)	2mo	$299,000	$208	68
5119 Bayou Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,797 (+8%)	5mo	$214,000	$119	65
1902 Cindy Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-14%)	9mo	$299,900	$209	65
2605 Pecan St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,691 (+2%)	10mo	$129,900	$77	62
3201 Avenue F	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-7%)	3mo	$199,000	$129	52
3122 Ash Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-10%)	4mo	$210,000	$141	52
5316 Tanglebriar Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-9%)	4mo	$260,000	$172	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-149,992
• Equity at exit: $49,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.84×
• Total profit: $-266,099
• Equity at exit: $28,887

Cash invested: $93,547 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.5 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $282,476 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 64 d
• This list price: 81% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 844
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,752
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$418 /mo · $5,011/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-1,431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,526

Max offer price $127,013

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,200	-5% $-1,316	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,547	+10% $-1,662
Rent	-10% $-1,567	-5% $-1,499	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,363	+10% $-1,296
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,263	-0.5pp $-1,346	base $-1,431	+0.5pp $-1,518	+1.0pp $-1,606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,524
• Closing costs: $10,023
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5313 Palm Dr Unit 1546303P Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$5,645	$3.45	66d	1	0.65mi
3011 FM 517 Rd E Unit 3015 Dickinson, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	93d	1	0.70mi
3011 FM 517 Rd E Dickinson, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	93d	1	0.70mi
3015 FM 517 Rd E Dickinson, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	42d	1	0.71mi
3015 FM 517 Rd E Dickinson, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	37d	1	0.71mi
2124 Greenlee Ln Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,700	$0.92	73d	1	0.78mi
4909 Green Willow Ln Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1908	$1,931	$1.01	36d	1	0.96mi
3011 Longwood Ln Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	68d	1	0.99mi
3206 Lobit Dr Dickinson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$1,350	$1.26	2d	6	1.06mi
3226 Teakwood Cir Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,700	$1.17	34d	1	1.18mi
3206 Teakwood Cir Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,915	$1.45	71d	1	1.27mi
110 Deats Rd Dickinson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$1,449	$1.61	0d	9	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $325,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $325,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $325,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $325,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $325,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $325,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $325,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $325,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $325,000 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $325,000 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $325,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $325,000 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $325,000 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $325,000 Active 222 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $325,000 Active 221 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $325,000 Active 220 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $325,000 Active 219 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $325,000 Active 218 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,000 Active 217 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,000 Active 216 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $325,000 Active 215 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $325,000 Active 214 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $325,000 Active 213 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 211 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $325,000 Active 210 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $325,000 Active 209 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 208 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 207 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 206 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 205 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 204 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $325,000 Active 203 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $325,000 Active 202 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $325,000 Active 201 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $325,000 Active 200 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $325,000 Active 198 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $325,000 Active 196 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $325,000 Active 195 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $325,000 Active 192 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $325,000 Active 191 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $325,000 Active 190 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $325,000 Active 189 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $325,000 Active 187 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $325,000 Active 183 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,000 Active 182 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 181 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 178 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 177 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,715
• − Property taxes: −$5,011
• − Insurance: −$6,789
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,719
• Taxable loss: −$23,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,653
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautifully designed single-family home in Magnolia Bayou Plan, Dickinson TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious kitchen, two full bathrooms, and ample storage and parking. The home's curb appeal and interior condition make it a strong candidate for both resale and rental value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Modernizes system and improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calder Road El C TX #705/4,322 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Dickinson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #533
• US rank: #10431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dickinson, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,375
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listed $320,000 Zillow