12838 Cooper Breaks Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$218,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2005 7,675 sqft lot Est $287k · 24% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

What a lovely Eagle Springs beauty. Home offers beautiful wood floors, plantation shutters, washer, dryer and fridge included, fireplace in large living area, neutral paint colors throughout. Large kitchen with eat in breakfast area, breakfast bar, crown molding, great split floorplan. Home has some deferred maintenance original roof and ac's, price reflects condition. Large primary bedroom, bath and closet. Great backyard.

Key facts

• 7,675 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: ESCA/Crest; Annual association fee of $1,100; Association maintains clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, lake/pond, meeting/party room, picnic area, playground, pickleball, pool, tennis courts, and trails; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2005; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Pond on lot; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Jetted tub; Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Jetted tub; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (15.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $218k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Springs El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 688 students, 30% FRL); Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,205 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12838 Cooper Breaks Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+3%)	1mo	$218,500	$115	94
12810 Whistling Springs Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,935 (+5%)	2mo	$314,990	$163	78
12818 Ribbon Meadow Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+6%)	0mo	$287,500	$148	74
17919 Eagle Pass Falls Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,734 (-6%)	8mo	$277,000	$160	73
18102 Pagemill Point Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,817 (-1%)	7mo	$275,000	$151	72
12735 Whistling Springs Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,729 (-6%)	8mo	$270,000	$156	71
7115 Rose Village Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+3%)	2mo	$255,000	$134	61
17918 Eagle Pass Falls Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,573 (-14%)	6mo	$260,000	$165	60
6715 Rockwall Trail Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+0%)	10mo	$269,000	$146	60
17114 Upper Ridge Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,779 (-3%)	2mo	$295,000	$166	59
18434 Yellowstone Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,854 (+1%)	7mo	$270,000	$146	59
13203 Davenport Hills Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-12%)	1mo	$280,000	$173	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-34,159
• Equity at exit: $53,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-50,704
• Equity at exit: $56,300

Cash invested: $61,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,146
• Tax from tax record: −$660 /mo · $7,919/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,517

Max offer price $185,205

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-127	+0% $-188	+5% $-250	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-369	-5% $-278	+0% $-188	+5% $-98	+10% $-8
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-133	base $-188	+0.5pp $-245	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,625
• Closing costs: $6,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17923 Diamond Peak Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2171	$2,306	$1.06	0d	1	0.25mi
17417 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,795	$1.88	0d	12	0.27mi
17401 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,139	$1.97	0d	41	0.39mi
17571 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,000	$2.17	0d	41	0.46mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	45d	1	0.48mi
17260 W Lake Houston Pkwy Atascocita, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$2,470	$2.32	0d	12	0.58mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	0.59mi
16848 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1128	$2,563	$2.27	0d	24	0.70mi
7315 Wisteria Chase Pl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,232	$1.00	21d	1	0.88mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	45d	1	0.89mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	12d	1	0.89mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,735	$1.21	0d	1	0.89mi
13513 Northline Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	45d	1	0.95mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,231	$0.95	0d	1	1.01mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	26d	1	1.02mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	17d	1	1.03mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	13d	1	1.05mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	1.08mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 3165 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,859	$1.33	0d	1	1.12mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 3174 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,910	$1.37	12d	1	1.12mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 14133 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,910	$1.37	45d	1	1.12mi
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	26d	1	1.14mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	7d	1	1.16mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,910	$1.84	14d	1	1.18mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	45d	1	1.23mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	45d	1	1.32mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	7d	1	1.42mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2341	$2,156	$0.92	0d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-11
   listed $218,500 Active
4. 2025-11-05
   soldstatus
5. 2013-08-13
   soldstatus
6. 2013-08-09
   soldstatus Sold
7. 2013-07-15
   status Pending
8. 2013-07-10
   status Option Pending
9. 2013-06-27
   listed $162,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,919 · $660/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,919 · $660/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,239
• − Property taxes: −$7,919
• − Insurance: −$1,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$6,356
• Taxable loss: −$5,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,378
• After-tax cash flow: $-884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $218,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-07-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-06-27 Listed $162,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,919 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.