172 E Beck St · Nogales, AZ 85621

$230,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1972 7,405 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is a total fixer upper being sold in as is condition

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Centrally located
• Duplex

Tags

• DUPLEX
• CENTRALLY LOCATED
• REMODELED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Nogales - MFR1
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Parking information not provided
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Built year not provided
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Flower beds; Hillside lot; Paved city-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating; Wall cooling units; Ceiling fans pre-wired
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Nogales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#59 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nogales Unified District (4457) (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #207 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 438 students, 94% FRL); Wade Carpenter Middle School (math 7% / reading 15%, grade F, #183 of 218 statewide, top 85%, 576 students, 94% FRL); Nogales High School (math 13% / reading 19%, grade F, #258 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,796 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 55% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $230k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,327 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,664
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
162 E Beck St	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-6%)	21mo	$117,500	$84	67
211 E Hudgins St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-11%)	10mo	$66,675	$50	62
718 N Perkins Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,704 (+14%)	19mo	$145,000	$85	19
373 W Ellis St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,695 (+13%)	17mo	$140,000	$83	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $117,034
• Equity at exit: $207,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $350,795
• Equity at exit: $446,839

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85621

• Home prices YoY: 16.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,725

Max offer price $207,493

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-62	+0% $-127	+5% $-193	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-189	+0% $-127	+5% $-66	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-69	base $-127	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $230,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $230,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 59-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $230,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$793/yr (+$66/mo · 109.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nogales Unified District (4457)
• NCES district ID: 0405530
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $28,293
• Composite: 13.72/100
• National rank: #9494
• State rank: #207 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Nogales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #10055

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,512

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 51% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 91%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.62%
• Current HPI: 385.6724
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+158.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $230,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-01 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-04 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-01-27 Listed $89,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · +269.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.