230 Central Ave Unit 1F · Lawrence, NY 11559

$365,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo · 16 Days on market

Built 1942 $332/sqft · 10% below area Est $410k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set within the sought-after Majestic Building, this inviting Lawrence co-op offers a seamless combination of timeless character and modern updates. From the moment you enter, rich hardwood floors and an airy layout create a welcoming feel throughout the living and dining spaces, ideal for both quiet evenings at home and effortless entertaining. The apartment features two comfortable bedrooms with classic parquet flooring and ceiling fans, adding warmth and charm to each space. The renovated kitchen blends style and functionality with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ceramic tile flooring, and ample workspace for everyday cooking or hosting guests. Recessed lighting throughou

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1942
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-780 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $364k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $360k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#981 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence Union Free School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #399 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $359,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.16%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,362
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -8.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $149,881
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $481,925
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11559

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,644 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$456 /mo · $5,475/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$1,136
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$765
• Net cashflow: $-780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,631

Max offer price $252,173

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Maple Ave Unit 2nd FLOOR Cedarhurst, NY	3.0	2.0	1150	$4,275	$3.72	10d	1	0.93mi
11 Bayview Ave Inwood, NY	3.0	2.0	1246	$4,500	$3.61	24d	1	0.93mi
49 Roger Ave Inwood, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$3,200	$4.00	43d	1	0.94mi
601 Chestnut St Unit A-21 Cedarhurst, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,850	$4.07	43d	1	0.95mi
623 Central Ave Unit 306 Cedarhurst, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,550	$2.55	18d	1	0.96mi
757 Chestnut St Unit 1st Fl Cedarhurst, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,195	$3.50	1d	1	1.04mi
13-15 Heyson Rd Unit 2 Far Rockaway, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,600	$3.00	18d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $365,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    status $365,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $365,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    historical
15. 2026-04-05
    price $375,000
16. 2026-02-27
    price $395,000
17. 2025-11-05
    listed $399,000 Active
18. 2024-05-01
    status Active
19. 2023-12-18
    status Active
20. 2023-12-15
    historical
21. 2023-12-15
    listed $399,000 Active
22. 2023-12-11
    historical
23. 2023-12-11
    listed $399,000 Active
24. 2015-09-22
    historical
25. 2014-10-02
    listed $159,000
26. 2013-09-30
    historical
27. 2012-07-13
    listed $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$5,475
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,498
• − Management: −$3,498
• − HOA: −$13,632
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$15,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616830
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $91,008
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3307
• State rank: #399 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lawrence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #981
• US rank: #19168

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence, NY
• City population: 9,130
• Population (ZIP): 9,130

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Slovak 3% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.24%
• Current HPI: 436.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+121.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-15 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-11 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-11 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-02 Listed $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-13 Listed $169,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid