154 Orange Flame Blvd · Uhland, TX 78640

$203,720

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Land · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $201/sqft · 12% below area Est $231k · 12% under $60/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED COMPLETION AUGUST. The Darcy is a thoughtfully designed 1,014 square foot home that offers two spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms. The open-concept layout features a stunning kitchen with a large island and a walk-in pantry. The main bedroom, bedroom 1, includes a generous ensuite with a walk-in shower and a sizable walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and a professionally landscaped, irrigated yard with Bermuda sod. The Darcy also includes the America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, a Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more. Images are representative of p

Key facts

• Large island
• Walk-in shower
• Stunning kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GENEROUS ENSUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Marigold) with $60 monthly fee; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community amenities include common grounds, community mailbox, dog park, playground, park, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by DR HORTON; Faces southwest; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type exterior with radiant barrier; Composition shingle roof; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Automatic sprinklers; Back yard fencing with wood privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Vented exhaust fan; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; Main level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Thermostat included
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Smart home features; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane vinyl windows with screens; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,863 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,167
• List price: $203,720
• Delta: -11.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-45,509
• Equity at exit: $30,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,080
• Equity at exit: $17,614

Cash invested: $57,042 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,068
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,078/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $181,272

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,930
• Closing costs: $6,112
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,414	$0.97	12d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $203,720 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $203,720 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $203,720 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $203,720 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $203,720 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $203,720 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $203,720 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $203,720 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $203,720 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $203,720 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $203,720 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-04-29
    listed $203,720 Active 757-char remark
13. 2026-04-23
    listed $203,720 Active 774-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,728 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,650/yr (+$221/mo · 245.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,411
• − Property taxes: −$1,078
• − Insurance: −$1,019
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$5,926
• Taxable loss: −$5,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $-289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $203,720 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,078 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.