1938 E Hazeltine Way · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$674,800

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,099 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2014 6,325 sqft lot Est $710k · at est. $116/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Home, complete and ready for move-in. Great 5 bedroom 3 full bath two story home in popular, amenity-rich neighborhood.

Key facts

• Full fitness center
• Scenic walking paths
• 6,325 sq ft lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED ALUMINUM PERGOLA
• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• FULL FITNESS CENTER
• SCENIC WALKING PATHS
• BREATHTAKING MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee $116 per month; Association maintains grounds; Association rules prohibit visible truck/trailer/RV/boat; Community amenities: pool, lake, heated community spa, community spa, community media room, playground, biking/walking paths, fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces; 3 covered spaces; 3-car garage; Tandem garage configuration; RV gate; Garage door opener; Direct garage access; Separate storage area in garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Front and rear automatic-timer irrigation (sprinklers); Desert front landscaping; Synthetic grass in back; Sprinklers in front and rear; City-maintained road; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in microwave; Water purifier / reverse osmosis; Non-laminate counters; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Up to 6 bedrooms (potential/possible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bath; Upstairs living area; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in primary suite; Separate shower and tub; Low-emissivity, dual-pane vinyl frame windows
• Laundry & utility: Upstairs laundry; Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $675k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $467k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (44.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($665k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $331k; list at $675k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,183 (44.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.48%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $709,671
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7827 S Sequoia Dr	0.52mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,925 (-6%)	1mo	$875,000	$299	59
1961 E Stacey Rd	0.02mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,541 (+14%)	13mo	$715,000	$202	57
6570 S Pewter Way	0.67mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,140 (+1%)	9mo	$630,000	$201	50
2425 E Flintlock Dr	0.64mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,985 (-4%)	10mo	$684,900	$229	45
6627 S Garnet Way	0.65mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,851 (-8%)	7mo	$640,000	$224	42
2199 E Gillcrest Rd	0.47mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,512 (+13%)	9mo	$606,000	$173	41
2247 E Indian Wells Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,878 (-7%)	11mo	$660,000	$229	39
2215 E LA Costa Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,878 (-7%)	14mo	$705,000	$245	37
2377 E Galileo Dr	0.70mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,021 (-2%)	24mo	$850,000	$281	36
2459 E Lindrick Dr	0.67mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,720 (-12%)	10mo	$740,000	$272	35
2463 E Stacey Rd	0.67mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,541 (+14%)	13mo	$756,500	$214	27
2378 E Stacey Rd	0.56mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,651 (-14%)	23mo	$659,000	$249	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $223,503
• Equity at exit: $529,414

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $715,694
• Equity at exit: $1,067,273

Cash invested: $188,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,539
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,756/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $-1,178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,273

Max offer price $466,714

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,700
• Closing costs: $20,244
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7657 S Debra Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.5	3512	$3,700	$1.05	1d	1	0.54mi
6907 S Emerald Pl Chandler, AZ	5.0	4.0	3803	$2,995	$0.79	17d	1	1.31mi
6907 S Emerald Pl Chandler, AZ	5.0	4.0	3803	$3,295	$0.87	14d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $674,800 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $674,800 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $674,800 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $674,800 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $674,800 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $674,800 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $678,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $678,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $678,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $678,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $684,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $684,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $684,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $684,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $684,900 Active
16. 2026-05-21
    historical
17. 2014-06-30
    soldstatus $330,841 Closed 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    New Home, complete and ready for move-in. Great 5 bedroom 3 full bath two story home in popular, amenity-rich neighborhood.

18. 2014-04-15
    status Pending 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    New Home, complete and ready for move-in. Great 5 bedroom 3 full bath two story home in popular, amenity-rich neighborhood.

19. 2014-02-12
    listed $330,026 Active 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    New Home, complete and ready for move-in. Great 5 bedroom 3 full bath two story home in popular, amenity-rich neighborhood.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,756 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,454 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,698/yr (+$141/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,756
• − Insurance: −$3,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,631
• − Management: −$3,631
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$19,631
• Taxable loss: −$26,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,439
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+107.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $684,900 ARMLS
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) $330,841 ARMLS
• 2014-04-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2014-02-12 Listed $330,026 ARMLS

Property tax history

+34.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,756 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.