2433 SW Danbury Ln · Palm City, FL 34990

$225,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,374 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1989 1,225 sqft lot $164/sqft · 20% below area Est $282k · 20% under $449/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming 2 bedroom townhouse in a beautifully landscaped, manned gated community in a great location. The townhouse has a living & dining area filled with natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet space, appliances and sliding glass doors out to the large screened in patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Upstairs, two bedrooms offer privacy and tranquility, each with large closets for plenty of storage. The primary bathroom has a walk in shower and the 2nd bathroom provides a tub and shower. Additional features include a powder room, in-unit washer & dryer, accordion shutters, and assigned parking. Roof 2018. Enjoy the amenities which includes large swimming pool, tennis & pickleball courts. Short sale up to 60 day approval. $500 Capital Contribution.

Key facts

• Accordion shutters
• In unit washer dryer
• Assigned parking

Tags

• MANNED GATED COMMUNITY
• LARGE SCREENED IN PATIO
• WALK IN SHOWER
• IN UNIT WASHER DRYER
• ACCORDION SHUTTERS
• ASSIGNED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-21/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (0.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $225k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Palm City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#140 in FL, #2,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 446 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,694 (0.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,360
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -11.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2902 SW Lakemont Pl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,374 (0%)	1mo	$236,500	$172	96
2913 SW Lakemont Pl	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,374 (0%)	3mo	$265,000	$193	95
3537 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.68mi	2/2.5	1,374 (0%)	2mo	$170,000	$124	67
3527 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.72mi	2/2.5	1,374 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$193	66
3752 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-6%)	3mo	$365,000	$282	63
3675 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.50mi	2/2.5	1,236 (-10%)	2mo	$175,000	$142	58
3699 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.54mi	2/2.5	1,236 (-10%)	1mo	$237,900	$192	57
2959 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.55mi	2/2.5	1,236 (-10%)	2mo	$215,000	$174	56
3611 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.57mi	2/2.5	1,236 (-10%)	2mo	$230,000	$186	55
2960 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.56mi	2/2.5	1,236 (-10%)	3mo	$195,000	$158	55
3584 SW Sunset Trace Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-6%)	3mo	$279,000	$215	52
3011 SW Sunset Trace Cir #3011	0.62mi	2/2.5	1,236 (-10%)	3mo	$300,000	$243	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-43,642
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-65,416
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34990

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 446
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,215/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$449
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,520

Max offer price $224,694

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2735 SW Mariposa Cir Palm City, FL	2.0	2.0	1612	$2,800	$1.74	23d	1	0.28mi
3662 SW Sunset Trace Cir Palm City, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,500	$1.93	14d	1	0.46mi
2868 SW Shinnecock Hills Ct Palm City, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$3,000	$2.07	23d	1	0.56mi
3505 SW Quail Meadow Trl Unit A Palm City, FL	2.0	2.0	1331	$2,500	$1.88	14d	1	0.57mi
3599 SW Sunset Trace Cir Palm City, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$2,200	$1.78	21d	1	0.59mi
1880 SW Springfield Ct Palm City, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$2,950	$1.93	23d	1	0.59mi
3579 SW Sunset Trace Cir Palm City, FL	2.0	2.5	1236	$2,300	$1.86	23d	1	0.60mi
3641 SW Coquina Cove Way Palm City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$2,312	$2.34	14d	11	0.81mi
4004 SW Osprey Creek Way Palm City, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,700	$1.75	23d	1	0.87mi
3821 SW Coquina Cove Way Unit 205 Palm City, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,220	$2.02	23d	1	0.96mi
1605 SW Silver Pine Way Unit F2 Palm City, FL	2.0	2.0	1111	$2,000	$1.80	23d	1	1.02mi
2687 SW Egret Pond Cir Palm City, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,200	$1.28	23d	1	1.07mi
1544 SW Silver Pine Way Unit F-104 Palm City, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,500	$2.14	14d	1	1.08mi
4211 SW Egret Pond Ter Palm City, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,350	$1.51	23d	1	1.11mi
2621 SW Egret Pond Cir Palm City, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$2,475	$1.72	23d	1	1.16mi
1634 SW Crossing Cir Palm City, FL	2.0	1.5	1258	$2,200	$1.75	23d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $449 · $5,388/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurityparking

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $225,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 230 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-02-17
    price $250,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Discover this charming 2 bedroom townhouse in a beautifully landscaped, manned gated community in a great location. The townhouse has a living & dining area filled with natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet space, appliances and sliding glass doors out to the large screened in patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Upstairs, two bedrooms offer privacy and tranquility, each with large closets for plenty of storage. The primary bathroom has a walk in shower and the 2nd bathroom provides a tub and shower. Additional features include a powder room, in-unit washer & dryer, accordion shutters, and assigned parking. Roof 2018. Enjoy the amenities which includes large swimming pool, tennis & pickleball courts. Short sale up to 60 day approval. $500 Capital Contribution.

16. 2026-01-15
    status Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Discover this charming 2 bedroom townhouse in a beautifully landscaped, manned gated community in a great location. The townhouse has a living & dining area filled with natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet space, appliances and sliding glass doors out to the large screened in patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Upstairs, two bedrooms offer privacy and tranquility, each with large closets for plenty of storage. The primary bathroom has a walk in shower and the 2nd bathroom provides a tub and shower. Additional features include a powder room, in-unit washer & dryer, accordion shutters, and assigned parking. Roof 2018. Enjoy the amenities which includes large swimming pool, tennis & pickleball courts. Short sale up to 60 day approval. $500 Capital Contribution.

17. 2026-01-09
    historical Active Under Contract 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Discover this charming 2 bedroom townhouse in a beautifully landscaped, manned gated community in a great location. The townhouse has a living & dining area filled with natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet space, appliances and sliding glass doors out to the large screened in patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Upstairs, two bedrooms offer privacy and tranquility, each with large closets for plenty of storage. The primary bathroom has a walk in shower and the 2nd bathroom provides a tub and shower. Additional features include a powder room, in-unit washer & dryer, accordion shutters, and assigned parking. Roof 2018. Enjoy the amenities which includes large swimming pool, tennis & pickleball courts. Short sale up to 60 day approval. $500 Capital Contribution.

18. 2025-12-20
    price $260,000 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Discover this charming 2 bedroom townhouse in a beautifully landscaped, manned gated community in a great location. The townhouse has a living & dining area filled with natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet space, appliances and sliding glass doors out to the large screened in patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Upstairs, two bedrooms offer privacy and tranquility, each with large closets for plenty of storage. The primary bathroom has a walk in shower and the 2nd bathroom provides a tub and shower. Additional features include a powder room, in-unit washer & dryer, accordion shutters, and assigned parking. Roof 2018. Enjoy the amenities which includes large swimming pool, tennis & pickleball courts. Short sale up to 60 day approval. $500 Capital Contribution.

19. 2025-10-14
    listed $285,000 Active 812-char remark

    Show marketing remark (812 chars)

    Discover this charming 2 bedroom townhouse in a beautifully landscaped, manned gated community in a great location. The townhouse has a living & dining area filled with natural light. The kitchen features ample cabinet space, appliances and sliding glass doors out to the large screened in patio, ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Upstairs, two bedrooms offer privacy and tranquility, each with large closets for plenty of storage. The primary bathroom has a walk in shower and the 2nd bathroom provides a tub and shower. Additional features include a powder room, in-unit washer & dryer, accordion shutters, and assigned parking. Roof 2018. Enjoy the amenities which includes large swimming pool, tennis & pickleball courts. Short sale up to 60 day approval. $500 Capital Contribution.

20. 2023-11-05
    historical $2,200
21. 2023-10-26
    listed $2,200
22. 2022-07-25
    soldstatus $329,999
23. 2022-07-19
    soldstatus $329,999 Closed 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully-maintained 2/2.5 townhome in the highly desirable and gated community of The Meadows at Martin Downs. Mostly original but in pristine condition, so it can be either move-in ready or completely renovated. Roof is NEW 2018. HOA includes cable, internet, exterior building insurance, manned security gate, heated pool, tennis courts, playground, etc. Conveniently located near restaurants, schools, shopping and Turnpike/95. Hurry up and get in a showing while you can!

24. 2022-06-13
    historical Active Under Contract 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully-maintained 2/2.5 townhome in the highly desirable and gated community of The Meadows at Martin Downs. Mostly original but in pristine condition, so it can be either move-in ready or completely renovated. Roof is NEW 2018. HOA includes cable, internet, exterior building insurance, manned security gate, heated pool, tennis courts, playground, etc. Conveniently located near restaurants, schools, shopping and Turnpike/95. Hurry up and get in a showing while you can!

25. 2022-06-06
    listed $329,999 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Welcome home to this beautifully-maintained 2/2.5 townhome in the highly desirable and gated community of The Meadows at Martin Downs. Mostly original but in pristine condition, so it can be either move-in ready or completely renovated. Roof is NEW 2018. HOA includes cable, internet, exterior building insurance, manned security gate, heated pool, tennis courts, playground, etc. Conveniently located near restaurants, schools, shopping and Turnpike/95. Hurry up and get in a showing while you can!

26. 2004-07-07
    soldstatus $178,000
27. 2004-07-06
    price $180,000
28. 2004-07-06
    soldstatus $178,000
29. 2004-05-21
    listed $178,000
30. 1997-08-25
    soldstatus $78,500
31. 1993-06-18
    soldstatus $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,215 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,215 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,215
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − HOA: −$5,388
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$840
• After-tax cash flow: $819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm City

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #2113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm City, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 30,592
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,592
• Household income: $129,560
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 249.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.81%
• Current HPI: 328.9662
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+244.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $250,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-09 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $260,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $285,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-11-05 Rental Removed $2,200 RMLSFL
• 2023-10-26 Listed for Rent $2,200 RMLSFL
• 2022-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $329,999 Public Records
• 2022-07-19 Sold (MLS) $329,999 Beaches MLS
• 2022-06-13 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2022-06-06 Listed $329,999 Beaches MLS
• 2004-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-06 Sold (MLS) $178,000 MCRTC
• 2004-07-06 Price Changed $180,000 MCRTC
• 2004-05-21 Listed $178,000 MCRTC
• 1997-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 1993-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,215 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.