23-23 30th Rd #3 · New York, NY 11102

$648,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 628 sqft · Condo · 19 Days on market

Built 2022 $420/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

A Meticulously Designed & Exceptionally Crafted 16 Unit Luxury Condominium Nestled on a Quiet Residential Block in the Heart of Astoria Queens. A seamless blend of elegant interior design and state of the art technology. 23-23 30 Rd. Features Studio, 1 and 2 Bedroom Residences outfitted with beautiful, hand-selected finishes that were fashioned with remarkable care. - The 30th Road Residences feature custom European white oak flooring, oversized European-style windows that radiate natural light, expansive closet space, impressive kitchens & modern spa-like bathrooms that offer complete serenity. - Kitchens are outfitted with European quartz countertops, custom lacquered European

Key facts

• Grey stone flooring
• Spa-like bathtubs
• $420 HOA

Tags

• EXPANSIVE CLOSET SPACE
• MODERN SPA-LIKE BATHROOMS
• EUROPEAN QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FINELY SELECTED WALL TILE
• GREY STONE FLOORING
• SPA-LIKE BATHTUBS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $648k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-977 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $507k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $496k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $496k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,963/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2407% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($638k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $496,314 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.46%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 4.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-66,755
• Equity at exit: $193,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-7,487
• Equity at exit: $236,889

Cash invested: $181,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11102

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,398
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$810 /mo · $9,720/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$420
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,042
• Net cashflow: $-977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,200

Max offer price $506,584

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,000
• Closing costs: $19,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1420 27th Ave Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$3,237	$3.65	3d	9	0.36mi
888 Main St New York, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$4,431	$4.60	6d	7	0.94mi
3705 30th St Long Island City, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$4,840	$6.91	10d	3	0.95mi
34-35 44th St Astoria, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	613	$3,576	$5.83	2d	26	1.02mi
515 E 86th St Unit 1760 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	485	$5,420	$11.18	3d	1	1.20mi
515 E 86th St Unit 589 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$6,070	$8.73	20d	1	1.20mi
501 E 87th St #2094 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	618	$7,890	$12.77	1d	2	1.22mi
501 1/2 E 83rd St #1998 New York, NY	2.0	1.0	525	$4,710	$8.97	24d	2	1.22mi
1567 York Ave Unit 1021866P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	742	$5,910	$7.96	22d	1	1.27mi
420 E 80th St #198 New York, NY	1.0	1.0	623	$4,760	$7.64	18d	1	1.34mi
354 E 91st St #648 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	692	$5,600	$8.09	1d	2	1.40mi
515 E 72nd St Unit 17D New York, NY	1.0	1.0	687	$5,500	$8.01	24d	1	1.41mi
345 E 94th St #1470 New York, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$5,645	$7.95	3d	3	1.44mi
315 E 86th St Unit 1327 New York, NY	1.0	2.0	726	$6,460	$8.90	24d	1	1.47mi
347 E 78th St Unit 1460467P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	645	$7,606	$11.79	24d	1	1.49mi
347 E 78th St Unit 1530420P New York, NY	2.0	1.0	645	$6,270	$9.72	22d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $420 · $5,040/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-01-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-02
   listed $648,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,298
• − Property taxes: −$9,720
• − Insurance: −$3,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,765
• − Management: −$4,765
• − HOA: −$5,040
• − Depreciation: −$18,851
• Taxable loss: −$23,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,549
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $96,617
• Rent vs Own: 86.6% rent · 13.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2407.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Asian 15% Two or more races 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 144.3118
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Listed $648,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid