12 Montrose Dr · Lake Carmel, NY 10512

$409,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1960 6,534 sqft lot $257/sqft · 20% below area Est $511k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces); Attic: full with pull-down stairs
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Electric heating (additional/see remarks)
• Interior features: Other interior features; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Electricity connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $409k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $409k).
• Recommended offer: $372k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Matthew Paterson Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 488 students, 41% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $409k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price.

Recommended offer $372,489 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $511,109
• List price: $409,000
• Delta: -19.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Woodland Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	9mo	$470,000	$300	73
9 Saw Mill Rd	0.20mi	2/1.5	1,566 (-1%)	20mo	$433,000	$277	70
127 Woodland Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,783 (+12%)	9mo	$354,000	$199	61
61 Montrose Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,375 (-14%)	3mo	$505,000	$367	60
135 Cottage Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+10%)	8mo	$435,000	$249	54
21 Rockwood Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,360 (-14%)	9mo	$375,000	$276	51
252 Towners Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,728 (+9%)	6mo	$439,000	$254	50
22 Yorktown Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,768 (+11%)	21mo	$380,000	$215	44
1 Roslyn Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,721 (+8%)	8mo	$455,000	$264	43
10 Placid Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+10%)	20mo	$412,700	$235	39
37 Beechmont Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,408 (-11%)	18mo	$395,000	$281	36
4 Roslyn Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (-7%)	21mo	$460,000	$310	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-98,041
• Equity at exit: $60,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-124,322
• Equity at exit: $35,363

Cash invested: $114,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10512

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax from tax record: −$1,552 /mo · $18,624/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,895

Max offer price $372,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $814	-5% $-394	+0% $-510	+5% $-626	+10% $-741
Rent	-10% $-846	-5% $-678	+0% $-510	+5% $-342	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-304	-0.5pp $-406	base $-510	+0.5pp $-616	+1.0pp $-724

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,250
• Closing costs: $12,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Vernon Dr Carmel, NY	3.0	2.0	2074	$4,250	$2.05	45d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $409,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $409,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $415,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $415,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $415,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $415,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $415,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $415,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    price $415,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,000 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $429,000 Active 24 DOM
20. 2026-05-06
    listed $429,000 Active 1342-char remark
21. 2026-05-05
    historical $429,000 1342-char remark
22. 2026-04-29
    historical
23. 2026-04-01
    listed $459,000 Active
24. 2026-04-01
    historical
25. 2023-07-07
    soldstatus $180,000
26. 2022-04-14
    soldstatus $190,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

27. 2022-03-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

28. 2022-03-14
    price $199,500

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

29. 2022-02-09
    price $209,900

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

30. 2022-02-09
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

31. 2022-02-01
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

32. 2022-01-04
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

33. 2021-12-01
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

34. 2021-11-23
    price $213,900

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

35. 2021-11-09
    price $225,000

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

36. 2021-10-05
    price $237,500

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

37. 2021-10-05
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

38. 2021-09-20
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

39. 2021-09-14
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

40. 2021-07-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

41. 2021-07-16
    listed $250,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Country roads leads you to this solid two story house in a quiet neighborhood. It may require a little TLC but worth a look. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

42. 2004-04-05
    soldstatus $215,000
43. 2004-03-31
    soldstatus $215,000
44. 2004-02-03
    historical
45. 2004-02-03
    price $224,900
46. 2003-08-18
    listed $215,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $18,624 · $1,552/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,624 · $1,552/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,910
• − Property taxes: −$18,624
• − Insurance: −$2,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,898
• Taxable loss: −$12,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,033
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Carmel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Carmel, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,238

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.73%
• Current HPI: 258.8452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+90.2% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $409,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $415,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) $190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-14 Price Changed $199,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-09 Price Changed $209,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-09 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-23 Price Changed $213,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-09 Price Changed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-05 Price Changed $237,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-05 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-14 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Listed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-31 Sold (MLS) $215,000 HGMLS
• 2004-02-03 Price Changed $224,900 HGMLS
• 2004-02-03 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2003-08-18 Listed $215,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,624 · +60.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.