8941 Bethel Rd · Prospect, TN 38477

$299,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1966 2.31 ac lot $120/sqft · 26% below area Est $406k · 26% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a spacious, move-in-ready home conveniently located between Pulaski and Athens? Look no further than this recently remodeled home sitting on a parklike 2.3 acres with creek, pond, and barn. Inside you will find a large living area with open concept into like-new kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and massive island. Great space for entertaining. Remodeled primary suite with new shower, double vanity, and walk in closet. Large mud room and additional flex room (office, 4th bedroom, playroom). Lot offers ample space for shop, pool, fire pit, or all three! Long list of other updates to this one, come see for yourself!

Key facts

• Parklike 2.3 acres
• Pond
• Barn

Tags

• PARKLIKE 2.3 ACRES
• CREEK
• POND
• BARN
• OPEN CONCEPT
• LIKE-NEW KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Giles County (rural): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #105 of 139 in TN (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Elkton Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #709 of 952 statewide, top 77%, 277 students, 0% FRL); Bridgeforth Middle School (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #221 of 333 statewide, top 67%, 314 students, 0% FRL); Giles Co High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #237 of 332 statewide, top 75%, 703 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Giles County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Giles County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,986 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.58%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,279
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -26.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2788 Alf Harris Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,216 (-11%)	17mo	$335,000	$151	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $129,690
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $408,169
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38477

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,744/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,417

Max offer price $206,791

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-357	-5% $-442	+0% $-527	+5% $-612	+10% $-697
Rent	-10% $-665	-5% $-596	+0% $-527	+5% $-458	+10% $-389
Rate	-1.0pp $-376	-0.5pp $-451	base $-527	+0.5pp $-605	+1.0pp $-684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $299,900 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Looking for a spacious, move-in-ready home conveniently located between Pulaski and Athens? Look no further than this recently remodeled home sitting on a parklike 2.3 acres with creek, pond, and barn. Inside you will find a large living area with open concept into like-new kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and massive island. Great space for entertaining. Remodeled primary suite with new shower, double vanity, and walk in closet. Large mud room and additional flex room (office, 4th bedroom, playroom). Lot offers ample space for shop, pool, fire pit, or all three! Long list of other updates to this one, come see for yourself!

17. 2026-05-14
    price $299,900 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Looking for a spacious, move-in-ready home conveniently located between Pulaski and Athens? Look no further than this recently remodeled home sitting on a parklike 2.3 acres with creek, pond, and barn. Inside you will find a large living area with open concept into like-new kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and massive island. Great space for entertaining. Remodeled primary suite with new shower, double vanity, and walk in closet. Large mud room and additional flex room (office, 4th bedroom, playroom). Lot offers ample space for shop, pool, fire pit, or all three! Long list of other updates to this one, come see for yourself!

18. 2026-04-14
    listed $314,900 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Looking for a spacious, move-in-ready home conveniently located between Pulaski and Athens? Look no further than this recently remodeled home sitting on a parklike 2.3 acres with creek, pond, and barn. Inside you will find a large living area with open concept into like-new kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and massive island. Great space for entertaining. Remodeled primary suite with new shower, double vanity, and walk in closet. Large mud room and additional flex room (office, 4th bedroom, playroom). Lot offers ample space for shop, pool, fire pit, or all three! Long list of other updates to this one, come see for yourself!

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $314,900 Active 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Looking for a spacious, move-in-ready home conveniently located between Pulaski and Athens? Look no further than this recently remodeled home sitting on a parklike 2.3 acres with creek, pond, and barn. Inside you will find a large living area with open concept into like-new kitchen with granite countertops, stainless appliances, and massive island. Great space for entertaining. Remodeled primary suite with new shower, double vanity, and walk in closet. Large mud room and additional flex room (office, 4th bedroom, playroom). Lot offers ample space for shop, pool, fire pit, or all three! Long list of other updates to this one, come see for yourself!

20. 2026-03-23
    historical
21. 2025-11-11
    price $314,900
22. 2025-10-06
    price $329,900
23. 2025-09-15
    listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,129 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,744
• − Insurance: −$2,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$11,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,862
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Giles County
• NCES district ID: 4701410
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,318
• Composite: 18.63/100
• National rank: #8895
• State rank: #105 of 139 in TN

Livability — Prospect

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,833

Population outlook (Giles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,505 people
• By 2030: 27,960 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 26,740 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 25,665 · -10.0%
• By 2075: 24,798 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 25,524 · -10.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 7% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Giles

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.1% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+49.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+29.2 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.68%
• Current HPI: 347.487
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $299,900 VMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $299,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $314,900 VMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $314,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $314,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $329,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listed $339,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,744 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.