Adventure 15 Forest Creek Plan · Elkhart, IN 46517

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 450 Days on market

Fair condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Forest Creek in Elkhart, IN Infused with an undeniable sense of community, UMH Properties Inc. 's Forest Creek community offers an impeccably maintained, quiet place to live in Elkhart, Indiana. Residents at Forest Creek will find 3-bedroom 2-bathroom single family homes with spacious open concept floor plans, wood kitchen cabinets and Energy Star certified appliances. Enjoy front and back decks, a driveway and spacious storage shed. At Forest Creek in Elkhart, Indiana we provide a plethora of amenities for our residents to enjoy. Stay active at our community playground, and relax knowing that your new home includes on-site maintenance and management. Gather for one of our community events, including our resident appreciation day, annual holiday party, and yard of the month contest! There is something for everyone at our community in Elkhart. Our residents love how much there is to do, so come find out for yourself! We would love to give you a tour of our community. In the Elkhart Area From gorgeous parks and gardens to rivers and museums, Elkhart, Indiana has a vast array of attractions for everyone. Located 20 minutes from South Bend and just 2.5 hours from Indianapolis, Forest Creek community residents will enjoy the tranquility of the country with access to everything a big city has to offer. Forest Creek community is conveniently located to nearby shopping, food stores, parks and hospitals. Embrace the community where you know you've found your forever home. Education near Forest Creek Forest Creek residents will be located in the Concord School District. Students grades K-4 will attend West Side Elementary before attending Concord Intermediate school for grades 5 - 6, Concord Junior High grades 7-8 and grades 9-12 will finish their schooling at Concord High School.

Key facts

• On-site maintenance
• Community playground
• Front and back decks

Tags

• COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND
• ON-SITE MAINTENANCE
• SPACIOUS STORAGE SHED
• FRONT AND BACK DECKS
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLANS
• CONCORD SCHOOL DISTRICT

🏗️ New construction. The $134,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $212,576.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#224 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Concord Community Schools (suburban): math 24% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #226 of 301 in IN (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 450 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 450 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,576
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26070 Woodridge Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	23mo	$205,000	$146	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-55,033
• Equity at exit: $31,696

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-74,369
• Equity at exit: $18,380

Cash invested: $59,521 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46517

• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,115
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$266 /mo · $3,189/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,860

Max offer price $165,756

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-250	+0% $-324	+5% $-397	+10% $-470
Rent	-10% $-438	-5% $-381	+0% $-324	+5% $-266	+10% $-209
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-269	base $-324	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,144
• Closing costs: $6,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2700 Ridgewood Dr Elkhart, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,450	$2.01	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 450 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 449 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 448 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 447 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 446 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 444 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 443 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 441 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 440 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 439 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 438 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 434 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 433 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 432 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 431 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 430 DOM
17. 2025-06-04
    price $134,900 1803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1803 chars)

    Forest Creek in Elkhart, IN Infused with an undeniable sense of community, UMH Properties Inc. 's Forest Creek community offers an impeccably maintained, quiet place to live in Elkhart, Indiana. Residents at Forest Creek will find 3-bedroom 2-bathroom single family homes with spacious open concept floor plans, wood kitchen cabinets and Energy Star certified appliances. Enjoy front and back decks, a driveway and spacious storage shed. At Forest Creek in Elkhart, Indiana we provide a plethora of amenities for our residents to enjoy. Stay active at our community playground, and relax knowing that your new home includes on-site maintenance and management. Gather for one of our community events, including our resident appreciation day, annual holiday party, and yard of the month contest! There is something for everyone at our community in Elkhart. Our residents love how much there is to do, so come find out for yourself! We would love to give you a tour of our community. In the Elkhart Area From gorgeous parks and gardens to rivers and museums, Elkhart, Indiana has a vast array of attractions for everyone. Located 20 minutes from South Bend and just 2.5 hours from Indianapolis, Forest Creek community residents will enjoy the tranquility of the country with access to everything a big city has to offer. Forest Creek community is conveniently located to nearby shopping, food stores, parks and hospitals. Embrace the community where you know you've found your forever home. Education near Forest Creek Forest Creek residents will be located in the Concord School District. Students grades K-4 will attend West Side Elementary before attending Concord Intermediate school for grades 5 - 6, Concord Junior High grades 7-8 and grades 9-12 will finish their schooling at Concord High School.

18. 2025-03-26
    listed $139,000 Active 1803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1803 chars)

    Forest Creek in Elkhart, IN Infused with an undeniable sense of community, UMH Properties Inc. 's Forest Creek community offers an impeccably maintained, quiet place to live in Elkhart, Indiana. Residents at Forest Creek will find 3-bedroom 2-bathroom single family homes with spacious open concept floor plans, wood kitchen cabinets and Energy Star certified appliances. Enjoy front and back decks, a driveway and spacious storage shed. At Forest Creek in Elkhart, Indiana we provide a plethora of amenities for our residents to enjoy. Stay active at our community playground, and relax knowing that your new home includes on-site maintenance and management. Gather for one of our community events, including our resident appreciation day, annual holiday party, and yard of the month contest! There is something for everyone at our community in Elkhart. Our residents love how much there is to do, so come find out for yourself! We would love to give you a tour of our community. In the Elkhart Area From gorgeous parks and gardens to rivers and museums, Elkhart, Indiana has a vast array of attractions for everyone. Located 20 minutes from South Bend and just 2.5 hours from Indianapolis, Forest Creek community residents will enjoy the tranquility of the country with access to everything a big city has to offer. Forest Creek community is conveniently located to nearby shopping, food stores, parks and hospitals. Embrace the community where you know you've found your forever home. Education near Forest Creek Forest Creek residents will be located in the Concord School District. Students grades K-4 will attend West Side Elementary before attending Concord Intermediate school for grades 5 - 6, Concord Junior High grades 7-8 and grades 9-12 will finish their schooling at Concord High School.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,908
• − Property taxes: −$3,189
• − Insurance: −$1,063
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$6,184
• Taxable loss: −$7,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,855
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs needed, particularly on the interior walls and flooring. Painting and HVAC maintenance would significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor interior walls/paint — Some wear and tear is visible on the interior walls and paint.
• Minor flooring — Some wear and tear is visible on the flooring.
• Minor interior walls/paint — Some wear and tear is visible on the interior walls and paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting will improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and can lead to higher rental rates.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
interior walls/paint · Some wear and tear is visible on the interior walls and paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · Some wear and tear is visible on the flooring.	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls/paint · Some wear and tear is visible on the interior walls and paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Painting will improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system is crucial for tenant satisfaction and can lead to higher rental rates. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concord Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,133
• Composite: 27.02/100
• National rank: #7057
• State rank: #226 of 301 in IN

Livability — Elkhart

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #9852

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elkhart, IN
• City population: 74,260
• Population (ZIP): 25,438

Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.54%
• Current HPI: 214.9881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $134,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Listed $139,000 Zillow