23530 Main Rd · Orient, NY 11957

$835,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 1933 0.35 ac lot $557/sqft · 37% below area Est $1327k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this meticulously maintained Craftsman home in the heart of Orient. A home where timeless character meets modern, move-in condition. This mint condition 3 bedroom, 2 bath offers a perfect blend of classic architectural charm with bonus modern amenities. Set on a private, landscaped yard, this property offers a serene outdoor retreat. Perfect for relaxing, dining alfresco, or enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Ideally located just moments from Village Lane, pristine Bay and Sound beaches, and Orient's beloved local amenities. This home places you at the center of one of the North Fork's most desirable coastal communities. Whether you're searching fora primary residence, weekend g

Key facts

• Craftsman home
• Local amenities
• Coastal communities

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN HOME
• PRIVATE LANDSCAPED YARD
• SERENE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• BAY AND SOUND BEACHES
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• COASTAL COMMUNITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Has garage; No carport
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Propane available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Back yard fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Quartz/Quartzite counters
• Bedrooms: Two-level home (beds on multiple levels)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil-fired heat; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Basement with Bilco doors (full); Pull-down attic stairs; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $835k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($65k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $835k).
• Recommended offer: $810k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,080 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oysterponds Elementary School (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 80 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oysterponds Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $89k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $84k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $234k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$144k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($810k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $420k; list at $835k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $809,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.89%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,326,544
• List price: $835,000
• Delta: -37.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22495 Main Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+2%)	13mo	$1,125,000	$733	76
200 Village Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+13%)	7mo	$850,000	$503	64
830 Navy St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,403 (-6%)	17mo	$850,000	$606	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $800,621
• Equity at exit: $752,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.92×
• Total profit: $2,084,981
• Equity at exit: $1,622,221

Cash invested: $233,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11957

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,226 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,379
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,447/yr
• Insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,777
• Net cashflow: $5,434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,347

Max offer price $835,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $208,750
• Closing costs: $25,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Village Ln Orient, NY	2.0	2.0	1471	$15,000	$10.20	43d	1	0.19mi
1800 Village Ln Orient, NY	3.0	2.5	2200	$7,000	$3.18	43d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $835,000 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $835,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $835,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $835,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $835,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $835,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $835,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $835,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $835,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $835,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $835,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    price $835,000 808-char remark
13. 2026-04-21
    listed $899,000 Active 808-char remark
14. 2021-02-08
    historical
15. 2021-02-05
    listed $749,000 Active
16. 2019-09-12
    historical
17. 2019-06-17
    price $549,000
18. 2019-03-25
    listed $589,000 New
19. 2008-06-18
    soldstatus $420,000
20. 2004-08-18
    soldstatus $300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,447 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,779 · $732/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,332/yr (+$444/mo · 154.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $158,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,773
• − Property taxes: −$3,447
• − Insurance: −$4,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,697
• − Management: −$12,697
• − Depreciation: −$24,291
• Taxable income: $54,631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,111
• After-tax cash flow: $52,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — Orient

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #21725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orient, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.41%
• Current HPI: 265.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+178.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $835,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-05 Listed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-17 Price Changed $549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-25 Listed $589,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,447 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.