308 Lawrence Ln · Lake Hamilton, AR 71913

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1999 0.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, ideally located near all the attractions Hot Springs has to offer! Set on a peaceful half-acre lot, this property features a convenient separate laundry room, a large fenced backyard, and generously sized bedrooms. Whether you're a first-time buyer, growing family, or investor, this one has incredible potential. Come check it out today!

Key facts

• Detached
• 0.55 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• PEACEFUL HALF-ACRE LOT
• DETACHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car parking
• Utilities: Septic system; Private well; Electric service (municipal/Entergy)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and tile flooring; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-330/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.0% in Lake Hamilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#296 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Bismarck School District (rural): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 238 in AR (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,290 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,454
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,448
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $184,140

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $26	+0% $-28	+5% $-81	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-83	+0% $-28	+5% $28	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $21	base $-28	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $189,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 New Listing 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 New Listing 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-25
    listed $189,000 New Listing
17. 2025-06-17
    historical
18. 2025-03-14
    listed $189,000 New Listing
19. 2025-03-06
    historical
20. 2025-02-22
    price $189,000
21. 2025-02-06
    listed $199,000 New Listing
22. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus $180,000
23. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus $180,000 Sold
24. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus $180,000
25. 2022-04-28
    status Under Contract
26. 2022-04-25
    listed $185,000 New Listing
27. 2007-04-12
    soldstatus $136,500
28. 2005-11-04
    soldstatus $116,000
29. 2001-08-22
    soldstatus $85,000
30. 1999-06-29
    soldstatus $75,000
31. 1998-04-22
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 52.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,347
• − Management: −$1,347
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck School District
• NCES district ID: 0503240
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $42,486
• Composite: 43.73/100
• National rank: #2948
• State rank: #14 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lake Hamilton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20336

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+2000.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $189,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $189,000 CARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $189,000 CARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Listed $199,000 CARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Sold (MLS) $180,000 HSBOR
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CARMLS
• 2022-04-28 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-04-25 Listed $185,000 CARMLS
• 2007-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $136,500 Public Records
• 2005-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2001-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $791 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.