10 Regina Dr · Paris, IL 61944

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 204 Days on market

Built 1930 5,500 sqft lot $89/sqft · at area comps Est $152k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakefront living on the East Lake! Discover this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1,680 sq ft of living space with beautiful water views. Located at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this property provides privacy and a peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The interior offers a generous layout including a large living room, an inviting dining area, and multiple bonus spaces that provide flexibility for everyday living. With its generous square footage, scenic surroundings, and desirable lakefront location, this property presents an excellent opportunity for those looking to update, renovate, or invest for the future.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Twin lakes views
• Large living room

Tags

• TWIN LAKES VIEWS
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• PRIVACY
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• INVITING DINING AREA
• MULTIPLE BONUS SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($613/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,231 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,974
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -1.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Poplar Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,536 (-9%)	0mo	$140,000	$91	52
145 W Steidl Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-7%)	10mo	$170,000	$108	51
1113 Cherry Point St	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,652 (-2%)	11mo	$162,475	$98	46
1205 Tucker Beach Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	18mo	$173,000	$120	28
5 Curry Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,450 (-14%)	16mo	$140,000	$97	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-21,084
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,358
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61944

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $94	+0% $51	+5% $9	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $2	+0% $51	+5% $100	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $89	base $51	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 185 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 184 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 183 DOM
17. 2026-05-16
    price $149,900 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Lakefront living on the East Lake! Discover this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1,680 sq ft of living space with beautiful water views. Located at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this property provides privacy and a peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The interior offers a generous layout including a large living room, an inviting dining area, and multiple bonus spaces that provide flexibility for everyday living. With its generous square footage, scenic surroundings, and desirable lakefront location, this property presents an excellent opportunity for those looking to update, renovate, or invest for the future.

18. 2025-11-22
    listed $159,900 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Lakefront living on the East Lake! Discover this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering 1,680 sq ft of living space with beautiful water views. Located at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this property provides privacy and a peaceful setting surrounded by nature. The interior offers a generous layout including a large living room, an inviting dining area, and multiple bonus spaces that provide flexibility for everyday living. With its generous square footage, scenic surroundings, and desirable lakefront location, this property presents an excellent opportunity for those looking to update, renovate, or invest for the future.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,192 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,211/yr (+$101/mo · 123.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$472
• After-tax cash flow: $1,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris-Union SD 95
• NCES district ID: 1730750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,294
• Composite: 27.73/100
• National rank: #6901
• State rank: #227 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paris

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #6933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, IL
• City population: 11,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,426

Population outlook (Edgar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,960 people
• By 2030: 14,978 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,990 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 11,087 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 7,338 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 4,526 · -71.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.0% · R 75.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.48%
• Current HPI: 108.1718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $149,900 CIBR
• 2025-11-22 Listed $159,900 CIBR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $982 · +81.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.