8281 Pine Tree Trl · Austin, MI 49346

$249,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1973 0.29 ac lot $130/sqft · 13% below area Est $287k · 13% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious walkout ranch in Canadian Lakes ready for its new owner! This 4-bedroom, 2 full bath, 2 half bath home features fresh paint and new flooring throughout. As you enter, you'll immediately notice the unique wood-burning fireplace in the living room, offering both character and plenty of warmth during the winter months. The fully finished lower level includes a large family room, second kitchen, additional bedrooms, and full bath, making it ideal for guests, extended living space, or entertaining. A bonus half bath and additional room just off the garage provide even more flexibility for a mudroom, workshop, home office, or extra storage space. Enjoy summer gatherings from the walkout

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Morley Stanwood Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #390 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morley Stanwood Elementary School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #919 of 1,397 statewide, top 66%, 461 students, 74% FRL); Morley Stanwood Middle School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #317 of 493 statewide, top 65%, 226 students, 66% FRL); Morley Stanwood High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #582 of 713 statewide, top 83%, 362 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 116 units permitted in Mecosta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mecosta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $200,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,174
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -12.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8247 Tanglewood Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,753 (-9%)	4mo	$325,000	$185	70
11650 13th St	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,990 (+4%)	12mo	$289,500	$145	55
11609 Twelfth St	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,988 (+4%)	14mo	$255,000	$128	50
8711 N Island Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,029 (+6%)	8mo	$530,000	$261	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,558
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,405
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49346

• Home prices YoY: -27.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281

Max offer price $217,776

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-136	+0% $-222	+5% $-308	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-380	-5% $-301	+0% $-222	+5% $-143	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-158	base $-222	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9210 Timberlane Dr Stanwood, MI	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,000	$1.23	5d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-05-10
   listed $249,900 Active 971-char remark
4. 2026-05-10
   listed $249,900 Active 980-char remark
5. 2026-05-10
   listed $249,900 Active
6. 2026-05-09
   historical $249,900
7. 2026-05-09
   historical $249,900 980-char remark
8. 2025-01-27
   historical
9. 2025-01-27
   historical
10. 2024-10-05
    listed $239,000 Active
11. 2024-10-05
    listed $239,000 Active
12. 2024-01-03
    historical
13. 2024-01-03
    historical
14. 2023-09-05
    price $225,000
15. 2023-09-05
    price $225,000
16. 2023-09-05
    price $225,000
17. 2023-08-25
    listed $255,000 Active
18. 2023-08-25
    listed $255,000 Active
19. 2023-05-23
    soldstatus $225,900
20. 2023-05-16
    soldstatus $225,900 Sold
21. 2023-05-16
    soldstatus $225,900 Sold
22. 2023-05-02
    status Pending
23. 2023-05-02
    status Pending
24. 2023-05-02
    status Pending
25. 2023-04-21
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
26. 2023-04-21
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
27. 2023-04-21
    historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted
28. 2023-04-18
    listed $219,900 Active
29. 2023-04-18
    listed $219,900 Active
30. 2023-04-18
    listed $219,900 Active
31. 2014-10-09
    soldstatus $74,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morley Stanwood Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624600
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,617
• Composite: 24.03/100
• National rank: #7769
• State rank: #390 of 540 in MI

Livability — Austin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canadian Lakes, MI
• Population (ZIP): 4,851

Population outlook (Mecosta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,954 people
• By 2030: 42,954 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 41,574 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 39,250 · -8.6%
• By 2075: 32,628 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 27,476 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecosta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.0) · D 34.2% · R 64.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: -30.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.0 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.43%
• Current HPI: 196.1356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+235.4% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $249,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-10 Listed $249,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-01-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-05 Listed $239,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-05 Listed $239,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $225,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $225,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $225,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $255,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $255,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $225,900 Public Records
• 2023-05-16 Sold (MLS) $225,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-05-16 Sold (MLS) $225,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-05-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-05-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-02 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-04-21 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-21 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-21 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $219,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $219,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $219,900 REALCOMP
• 2014-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records