15300 Palm · Desert Hot Springs, CA 92240

$209,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1989 3,920 sqft lot Est $230k · 9% under $300/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FANTASTIC PRICE!! MOST SOUGHT AFTER MODEL, SPACE # 183. LOCATED IN VISTA MONTANA, AN EXCLUSIVE 55+ COMMUNITY. HOME SITS ON FEE LAND (YOU OWN THE LAND) AND FEATURES FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT, LIVING ROOM WITH VAULTED CEILINGS, LARGE MASTER BEDROOM WITH ENSUITE, COPPER PLUMBING, TWO COOLING SYSTEMS, LARGE YARD, SPRINKLER & ALARM SYSTEMS AND COZY FIREPLACE. APPLIANCES INCLUDED!

Key facts

• Arched front window
• Open-concept living
• Mountain views

Tags

• GATED VISTA MONTANA COMMUNITY
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• DROUGHT-TOLERANT LANDSCAPE
• ARCHED FRONT WINDOW
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• WOOD-STYLE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Planned development common interest; No shared/common walls; Community features: street lighting, sidewalks, suburban setting
• Financial info: Property subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Vista Montana homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee of $300; Senior community; Community amenities: pool, spa, clubhouse, banquet facilities, billiard room, card room, multipurpose/recreational room, barbecue areas, onsite property management, guard, controlled access, cable TV (per association rules), pet rules

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport
• Security: Gated community with controlled access and guard (community amenities include security and controlled access)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured House; Single-story (1 story); Entry at ground level with stairs; Located in planned development community (Vista Montana)
• Construction: No ADU; Year built source: assessor
• Exterior features: Manufactured home; Paved lot with rectangular shape; Association-maintained in-ground community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 2 main level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One-level home with ground entry and steps; Primary bedroom on main level; All bedrooms located on the ground floor; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.0% in Desert Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,149 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,528/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15300 Palm Dr #35	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,430 (-0%)	5mo	$105,000	$73	91
15300 Palm Dr #161	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,333 (-7%)	1mo	$233,000	$175	85
15300 Palm Dr #138	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,323 (-8%)	3mo	$237,000	$179	82
15300 Palm Dr #209	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,335 (-7%)	3mo	$161,000	$121	79
15300 Palm Dr #119	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-6%)	4mo	$220,000	$164	78
15300 Palm Dr #255	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (-6%)	2mo	$203,500	$151	77
15300 Palm Dr #146	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+7%)	5mo	$218,000	$142	76
15300 Palm Dr #22	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,272 (-11%)	5mo	$219,000	$172	74
15300 Palm Dr #242	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,552 (+8%)	3mo	$212,750	$137	74
14777 Palm Dr #186	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+0%)	2mo	$245,000	$170	66
15300 Palm Dr #30	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	3mo	$200,000	$160	63
14777 Palm Dr #15	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	3mo	$180,000	$143	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-12,105
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $23,023
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,333/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,800	$1.92	43d	1	0.03mi
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	43d	1	0.80mi
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	24d	1	0.80mi
13987 El Cajon Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,600	$2.14	7d	1	0.83mi
16087 Bubbling Wells Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1850	$5,000	$2.70	43d	1	0.86mi
13950 West Dr Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,600	$1.59	1d	1	0.99mi
13715 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,600	$1.97	7d	1	1.23mi
13322 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,750	$2.26	43d	1	1.35mi
66824 Estrella Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	23d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $209,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,333 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,333 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,333
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,427
• − Management: −$2,427
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $3,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Desert Hot Springs

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1149
• US rank: #25774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert Hot Springs, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 41,615
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+122.3% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-25 Rental Removed $2,800 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $2,800 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $2,800 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-11-26 Listed for Rent $2,800 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-09-13 Rental Removed $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-06 Listed for Rent $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-05 Rental Removed $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $1,795 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-11 Price Changed $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-30 Sold (MLS) $197,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed for Rent $2,100 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-23 Rental Removed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $199,900 CRMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $204,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $214,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $219,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $1,999 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $2,199 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-01 Listed for Rent $2,499 APPFOLIO
• 2011-12-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-07-25 Listed $94,410 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,333 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.