221 Grand Ave W #308 · South St. Paul, MN 55075

$108,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 221 Days on market

Built 1986 $119/sqft · 18% below area Est $132k · 18% under $400/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful condo with all NEW paint, NEW kitchen countertop, NEW kitchen exhaust fan, NEW kitchen cabinet fixture, NEW kitchen and bathroom vinyl flooring. Large laundry room with washer/dryer hook-up and space for storage.

Key facts

• Large laundry room
• $400 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOP
• NEW KITCHEN EXHAUST FAN
• NEW KITCHEN CABINET FIXTURE
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.1% in South St. Paul — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South St. Paul Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #266 of 301 in MN (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Center Elementary (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #636 of 857 statewide, top 76%, 666 students, 58% FRL); South St. Paul Middle School (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #231 of 258 statewide, top 89%, 658 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 36% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $108k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,632
• List price: $108,000
• Delta: -17.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-6,165
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $9,962
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55075

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,488/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $204	+0% $174	+5% $143	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $108	+0% $174	+5% $239	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $201	base $174	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Grand Ave W South St Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	830	$1,365	$1.64	3d	1	0.03mi
161 Concord Exchange N South Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	786	$1,800	$2.29	0d	11	0.10mi
225 Concord Exchange N South Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$2,695	$3.24	0d	14	0.15mi
136 11th Ave N South Saint Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	762	$1,300	$1.71	45d	1	0.50mi
136 11th Ave N South Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	762	$1,300	$1.71	26d	1	0.50mi
447 5th Ave S South Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	14d	1	0.57mi
337 11th Ave S Apt 3 South St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	840	$1,350	$1.61	19d	1	0.65mi
617 2nd Ave S South Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	6d	1	0.75mi
1120 Bryant Ave South St Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$1,315	$1.85	26d	1	1.08mi
920 Summit Ave South Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$1,315	$1.85	6d	2	1.10mi
1240 Bryant Ave South Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	642	$1,349	$2.10	4d	4	1.10mi
239 Park St W Unit 2 South St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$999	$1.43	45d	1	1.16mi
352 21st Ave S Unit 2A South St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,090	$1.45	26d	1	1.23mi
1028 8th Ave S South St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	794	$1,175	$1.48	6d	12	1.33mi
221 Buron Ln South Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	977	$1,600	$1.64	14d	4	1.43mi
1905 Parkwood Dr South Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	972	$1,470	$1.51	4d	7	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $108,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $108,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 237-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $108,000 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $109,500 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Beautiful condo with all NEW paint, NEW kitchen countertop, NEW kitchen exhaust fan, NEW kitchen cabinet fixture, NEW kitchen and bathroom vinyl flooring. Large laundry room with washer/dryer hook-up and space for storage.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $115,000 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Beautiful condo with all NEW paint, NEW kitchen countertop, NEW kitchen exhaust fan, NEW kitchen cabinet fixture, NEW kitchen and bathroom vinyl flooring. Large laundry room with washer/dryer hook-up and space for storage.

19. 2026-02-10
    price $119,500 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Beautiful condo with all NEW paint, NEW kitchen countertop, NEW kitchen exhaust fan, NEW kitchen cabinet fixture, NEW kitchen and bathroom vinyl flooring. Large laundry room with washer/dryer hook-up and space for storage.

20. 2025-11-12
    listed $124,900 Active 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    Beautiful condo with all NEW paint, NEW kitchen countertop, NEW kitchen exhaust fan, NEW kitchen cabinet fixture, NEW kitchen and bathroom vinyl flooring. Large laundry room with washer/dryer hook-up and space for storage.

21. 2025-04-12
    historical $1,189
22. 2025-03-07
    historical $1,189
23. 2025-03-06
    listed $1,189
24. 2024-12-14
    price $1,189
25. 2024-10-22
    historical $1,190
26. 2024-10-22
    price $1,190
27. 2024-10-22
    listed $1,239
28. 2024-10-21
    price $1,239
29. 2024-10-04
    listed $1,240
30. 2024-10-04
    historical $1,240
31. 2024-09-21
    price $1,240
32. 2024-09-17
    price $1,289
33. 2024-08-21
    listed $1,290
34. 2014-01-29
    soldstatus $40,909
35. 2014-01-27
    soldstatus $40,909 Sold 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Great location! Clean 2 bedroom condo on top floor. Plus large storage/bonus room within unit. Spacious master bedroom w/ walk in closet. Secure building, elevator, underground/assigned parking.

36. 2014-01-22
    status Pending 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Great location! Clean 2 bedroom condo on top floor. Plus large storage/bonus room within unit. Spacious master bedroom w/ walk in closet. Secure building, elevator, underground/assigned parking.

37. 2014-01-16
    historical Contingent - Inspection 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Great location! Clean 2 bedroom condo on top floor. Plus large storage/bonus room within unit. Spacious master bedroom w/ walk in closet. Secure building, elevator, underground/assigned parking.

38. 2014-01-10
    listed $41,900 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Great location! Clean 2 bedroom condo on top floor. Plus large storage/bonus room within unit. Spacious master bedroom w/ walk in closet. Secure building, elevator, underground/assigned parking.

39. 2010-04-19
    soldstatus $31,000
40. 2010-03-19
    historical
41. 2010-02-12
    listed $36,000
42. 2005-07-07
    soldstatus $80,000
43. 2005-01-26
    soldstatus $75,270
44. 2004-12-01
    historical
45. 2004-11-11
    listed $85,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,488 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,488
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $1,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733270
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,787
• Composite: 25.47/100
• National rank: #7445
• State rank: #266 of 301 in MN

Livability — South St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South St. Paul, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 20,651
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,714
• Household income: $88,386
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.43%
• Current HPI: 249.4573
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+27.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $109,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $119,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-12 Rental Removed $1,189 RENTFEEDER
• 2025-03-07 Rental Removed $1,189 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,189 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-12-14 Price Changed $1,189 RENTFEEDER
• 2024-10-22 Rental Removed $1,190 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $1,190 RENTFEEDER
• 2024-10-22 Listed for Rent $1,239 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $1,239 RENTFEEDER
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $1,240 RENTFEEDER
• 2024-10-04 Rental Removed $1,240 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $1,240 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $1,289 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-08-21 Listed for Rent $1,290 SHOWMOJO
• 2014-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,909 Public Records
• 2014-01-27 Sold (MLS) $40,909 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-16 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-10 Listed $41,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-19 Sold (MLS) $31,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-12 Listed $36,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-26 Sold (MLS) $75,270 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-11 Listed $85,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,488 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.