1300 Chapel Downs Rd · Waco, TX 76712

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1983 4,400 sqft lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home offering the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living in a sought-after Midway ISD location. Step inside to fresh interior paint, updated flooring, and a bright, open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The kitchen features ample counter space, generous cabinetry, and a seamless connection to the dining and living areas—ideal for today’s modern lifestyle. All three bedrooms are located upstairs, along with a split full bath that provides both privacy and functionality for family or guests. Downstairs, a convenient half bath and laundry area add to the home’s p

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Generous storage
• Updated flooring

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• GENEROUS STORAGE
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage (garage faces rear) with garage door opener; On-street parking
• Security: Fire alarm; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Cable available; Alley access; Asphalt roads; Curbs
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Not attached
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Siding exterior; Slab foundation; Built in 1983 (preowned)
• Exterior features: Gutters; Private yard; Wood fencing in back yard; Covered patio; Front porch; Wrap-around patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Water line to refrigerator; Dual sinks; Built-in cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the 2nd level (approx. 15 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace(s) for supplemental heat; Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Roof turbine(s)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; 4 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Washer and electric dryer hookups; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chapel Park El (463 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 308 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-48,422
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-69,880
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76712

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$556 /mo · $6,667/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,315

Max offer price $204,826

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-51	+0% $-114	+5% $-178	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-286	-5% $-200	+0% $-114	+5% $-28	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-57	base $-114	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9720 Chapel Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	14d	93	0.33mi
1800 Woodgate Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	14d	132	0.65mi
9000 Chapel Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,900	$2.06	14d	6	0.83mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	22d	1	0.98mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	1.11mi
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	44d	1	1.27mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	44d	1	1.33mi
620 N Hewitt Dr Hewitt, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	897	$1,325	$1.48	14d	15	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 681-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $225,000 Active 226 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,667 · $556/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,667 · $556/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$6,667
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,214
• After-tax cash flow: $-157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,118
• Household income: $97,903
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 198.9025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.71%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-16 Listed $325,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,667 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.