1465 County Route 12 · Sand Ridge, NY 13036

$259,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1940 0.45 ac lot Est $377k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Updated interior
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SUNROOM MUDROOM COMBINATION
• NEWLY BUILT BACK DECK
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story single-family home; Resale property; Corner, irregular lot (119 x 165)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and stone foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Covered porch; Fully fenced yard; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Includes in-law suite
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Pull-down attic stairs; In-law floorplan; Partially finished basement with sump pump; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Sand Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#926 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Square Central School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Millard Hawk Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 477 students, 52% FRL); Central Square Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #587 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 833 students, 45% FRL); Paul V Moore High School (math 91% / reading 75%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 1,101 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; list at $260k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $210,726 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.41%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $376,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4407 Riviera Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (-12%)	12mo	$331,000	$190	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $128,443
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $388,766
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13036

• Home prices YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,806/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $223,333

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-133	+0% $-207	+5% $-281	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-290	+0% $-207	+5% $-124	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-76	-0.5pp $-141	base $-207	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-16
   price $259,900
4. 2026-04-04
   status Active
5. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-09
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-01-28
   listed $269,900 Active
8. 2020-04-03
   soldstatus $159,000
9. 2020-04-01
   soldstatus $159,000 Closed Sale or Rented 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

10. 2020-02-28
    status Pending Sale 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

11. 2020-02-18
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

12. 2020-02-04
    status Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

13. 2020-02-03
    historical 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

14. 2020-01-16
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

15. 2019-10-03
    listed $164,900 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Welcome to this Country style kind of Living. .. The moment your eyes set site on the grounds you will be swept away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life! The stepping stone pathway leads you the most inviting porch, where your day's stress will be left behind. Entering this well thought out & very well maintained Vintage home, with all the right updates. Features a spacious out building once used as a Art Studio. The property is located in the hamlet zoning w/ Endless Opportunities for living and your at home business. " This is an opportunity you don't want to miss out on!!!

16. 2019-08-28
    historical
17. 2019-07-18
    price $174,900
18. 2019-06-18
    listed $182,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,806 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,806 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,806
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Square Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606900
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $55,807
• Composite: 35.05/100
• National rank: #5035
• State rank: #507 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sand Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #18073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,079

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.27%
• Current HPI: 318.5068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+42.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $259,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-04 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-03-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-09 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $269,900 CNYIS
• 2020-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-01 Sold (MLS) $159,000 CNYIS
• 2020-02-28 Pending — CNYIS
• 2020-02-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2020-02-04 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2020-02-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2020-01-16 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2019-10-03 Listed $164,900 CNYIS
• 2019-08-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-07-18 Price Changed $174,900 CNYIS
• 2019-06-18 Listed $182,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,806 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.