4525 Ny-8 · North Creek, NY 12853

$399,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2004 Good condition 8.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the Adirondacks with this beautifully maintained log home set on 8 private acres. Built in 2004 and thoughtfully designed for year-round living, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath retreat blends rustic charm with modern comfort. Step inside to warm wood interiors, an inviting open layout, and a cozy stone fireplace that anchors the living space-ideal for relaxing after a day of hiking, skiing, or exploring the outdoors. The home's single-level design provides easy living, while a full basement offers excellent storage or future finishing potential. Outside, a covered screened in porch welcomes you to unwind and take in the peaceful surroundings. Just beyond the home, a gentle babbling brook w

Key facts

• Private acres
• Open layout
• Full basement

Tags

• LOG HOME
• PRIVATE ACRES
• OPEN LAYOUT
• STONE FIREPLACE
• SINGLE-LEVEL DESIGN
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Space for 10 vehicles total; Off-street parking on stone surface
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Log construction
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Front porch, side porch and covered porch; Screened and enclosed porch; Pressure-treated deck and additional deck; Porch(s); Shed(s); Partial or other fencing; Wooded, cleared and landscaped areas; Garden; Rolling slope lot; Road frontage; Stream on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air oil heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Paddle fan; French doors; Window screens; One wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Bilco doors and exterior & interior basement entries; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in bathroom on main level; Fuel tank(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.2% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $380,194 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $233,040
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $674,050
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12853

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $399,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $399,000 Contingent 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Contingent 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Contingent 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Contingent 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Contingent 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    historical Contingent
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $399,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,650
• − Management: −$3,650
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$3,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This log home is in good condition and ready for immediate occupancy. It has a well-maintained exterior and interior, and a clean porch. Painting the exterior and trimming the bushes and trees around the house can further enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior of the house — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and make the house look more inviting to potential buyers.
• Rental Clean the porch and remove any debris — A clean and well-maintained porch can attract more renters and make the house more appealing for potential tenants.
• Both Trim the bushes and trees around the house — Trimming the bushes and trees can improve the overall appearance of the property and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior of the house — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and make the house look more inviting to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Clean the porch and remove any debris — A clean and well-maintained porch can attract more renters and make the house more appealing for potential tenants. ↑
• Both Trim the bushes and trees around the house — Trimming the bushes and trees can improve the overall appearance of the property and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615870
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,308
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #6915
• State rank: #521 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.16%
• Current HPI: 310.7228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $399,000 Global MLS