1706 Westerfield Dr · Providence, KY 42450

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering space, comfort, and convenience. Located close to local amenities, this property features an open-concept layout with a spacious living room and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A potential 4th room provides flexibility for a home office, guest space, or playroom. Enjoy the large back porch ideal for relaxing or hosting gatherings. With plenty of closet space, a newer HVAC unit, and a comfortable master suite, this home is move-in ready and full of possibilities. HOME TO BE SOLD AS-IS.

Key facts

• Potential 4th room
• Large back porch
• Newer hvac unit

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE BACK PORCH
• POTENTIAL 4TH ROOM
• NEWER HVAC UNIT
• PLENTY OF CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#352 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Webster County (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #114 of 165 in KY (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Providence Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 290 students, 76% FRL); Webster County Middle School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 315 students, 66% FRL); Webster County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 676 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Webster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $85k implies a 608% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.46%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $46,080
• Equity at exit: $50,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $117,129
• Equity at exit: $88,457

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42450

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $248/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $635

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $85,000
3. 2026-01-21
   price $115,000
4. 2025-12-18
   status Active
5. 2025-11-25
   status Pending
6. 2025-10-23
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 2025-08-05
   price $119,900
8. 2025-07-10
   price $124,900
9. 2025-06-23
   price $129,900
10. 2025-06-09
    price $139,900
11. 2025-05-30
    listed $149,900 Active
12. 1999-08-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $248 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 195.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$248
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$821
• After-tax cash flow: $3,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster County
• NCES district ID: 2105820
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $39,542
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7600
• State rank: #114 of 165 in KY

Livability — Providence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #16669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,589

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,548 people
• By 2030: 12,119 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 10,761 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 10,166 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 10,546 · -16.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 1% Russian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.4) · D 20.8% · R 78.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.7pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -57.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.4 2020: R+51.6 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 240.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+608.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — HABOR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $85,000 HABOR
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $115,000 HABOR
• 2025-12-18 Relisted — HABOR
• 2025-11-25 Pending — HABOR
• 2025-10-23 Listed $125,000 HABOR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $119,900 HABOR
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $124,900 HABOR
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $129,900 HABOR
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $139,900 HABOR
• 2025-05-30 Listed $149,900 HABOR
• 1999-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · +24.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.