2807 Tampico · San Antonio, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 7/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 78.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +4.4/5.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.4/10.0
$45,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
OFF-MARKET DEAL: INVESTOR SPECIAL 2807 Tampico St, San Antonio, TX 78207 2 Bed / 1 Bath | 600 Sq Ft THE DEAL: Motivated seller looking for a quick cash exit. This 1947 property is a prime candidate for a full rehab or a "buy and hold" rental in the high-demand 78207 zip code. INVESTOR HIGHLIGHTS: * Foundation: Pier & Beam (easy access for plumbing/electric updates). * Location: 5 mins from Downtown SA and Our Lady of the Lake University. TERMS: * Condition: Sold AS-IS. * Closing: Fast close preferred.
Key facts
- High-demand zip code
- Full rehab
- 5 mins from downtown
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
- Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
- San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Sarah S King El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 564 students, 98% FRL); Lanier H S (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,554 of 1,632 statewide, top 95%, 1,547 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 80% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($32k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.27% ✓
- Cap rate
- 17.43%
- Cash-on-cash
- 39.77%
- DSCR
- 2.77
- GRM
- 3.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $67,200
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1503 Loma Vista St | 0.14mi | 2/1.0 | 641 (+7%) | 4mo | $55,000 | $86 | 78 |
| 1717 Montezuma | 0.32mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 576 (-4%) | 10mo | $69,999 | $122 | 65 |
| 3538 EL Paso St | 0.43mi | 2/1.0 | 616 (+3%) | 16mo | $99,900 | $162 | 62 |
| 2429 Potosi | 0.16mi | 2/2.0 | 674 (+12%) | 12mo | $45,000 | $67 | 58 |
| 2926 El Paso | 0.39mi | 2/1.0 | 672 (+12%) | 6mo | $39,999 | $60 | 57 |
| 2721 Colima | 0.28mi | 2/1.0 | 672 (+12%) | 14mo | $75,000 | $112 | 55 |
| 2605 Guadalupe St | 0.52mi | 2/1.0 | 636 (+6%) | 13mo | $99,900 | $157 | 55 |
| 818 Angela | 0.42mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 680 (+13%) | 4mo | $65,000 | $96 | 50 |
| 1125 Elvira St | 0.56mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 646 (+8%) | 15mo | $54,900 | $85 | 44 |
| 1528 Santiago St | 0.46mi | 2/1.0 | 675 (+12%) | 19mo | $100,000 | $148 | 42 |
| 912 Elvira | 0.68mi | 2/1.0 | 530 (-12%) | 8mo | $90,000 | $170 | 42 |
| 223 SW 19th St | 0.74mi | 2/1.0 | 680 (+13%) | 13mo | $72,000 | $106 | 33 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 7.73% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 58.7%
- Equity multiple
- 5.46×
- Total profit
- $56,248
- Equity at exit
- $40,540
- IRR
- 54.4%
- Equity multiple
- 13.49×
- Total profit
- $157,315
- Equity at exit
- $87,425
Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 78207
- Home prices YoY
- 15.2%
- Rents YoY
- 7.7%
- Active inventory
- 154
- Price-to-rent
- 3.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,020 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$236
- Tax from tax record
- −$133 /mo · $1,598/yr
- Insurance
- −$19
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$214
- Net cashflow
- $418
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $11,250
- Closing costs
- $1,350
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 6 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3017 Colima St San Antonio, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 480 | $800 | $1.67 | 43d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 2721 Colima St San Antonio, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $1,250 | $1.79 | 15d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 1938 S Zarzamora St Unit 610 San Antonio, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 744 | $915 | $1.23 | 3d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 2003 S Zarzamora St San Antonio, TX | 1.0–4.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1028 | $1,120 | $1.09 | 24d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 321 N Chupaderas St Unit 101 San Antonio, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 410 | $790 | $1.93 | 43d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 1820 Ruiz St San Antonio, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 504 | $750 | $1.49 | 2d | 1 | 1.47mi |
Listing history 4 events
-
2026-02-24status Pending
-
2026-02-24status Back on Market
-
2026-02-24status Pending
-
2026-02-18$45,000 New
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,598 · $133/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,598 · $133/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $12,235
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,521
- − Property taxes
- −$1,598
- − Insurance
- −$225
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$979
- − Management
- −$979
- − Depreciation
- −$1,309
- Taxable income
- $4,624
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,110
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,901/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- San Antonio ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4838730
- Math proficiency
- 12% ▼ -21.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 22% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $30,952
- Composite
- 13.57/100
- National rank
- #9512
- State rank
- #805 of 826 in TX
Livability — San Antonio
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #31
- US rank
- #1616
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- San Antonio, TX
- County
- Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
- City population
- 1,806,925
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 55,474
- Household income
- $32,472
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2789.0
Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,336,851 people
- By 2030
- 2,560,728 · +9.6%
- By 2040
- 3,020,569 · +29.3%
- By 2050
- 3,493,522 · +49.5%
- By 2075
- 4,668,459 · +99.8%
- By 2100
- 5,533,242 · +136.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 41% White 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 79%
- Foreign-born
- 19% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 39% English-only · Spanish 60%
Political lean MEDSL · Bexar
- 2024 margin
- Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 34.92%
- Current HPI
- 264.7559
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 7.73%
- Metro
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
4 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-24 Pending — LERA
- 2026-02-24 Relisted — LERA
- 2026-02-24 Pending — LERA
- 2026-02-18 Listed $45,000 LERA
Property tax history
+5.8%/yrLatest (2025): $1,598 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…