181 Pelican Cir · St. Marys, GA 31569

$57,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Other · 118 Days on market

Built 1984 0.46 ac lot $42/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

.46 Acre Lot Near Harriett's Bluff Boat Ramp - Sold As Is -- Opportunity awaits with this .46-acre wooded lot just minutes from the popular Harriett's Bluff Boat Ramp, offering quick access to the water for boating, fishing, and coastal living. Nestled among mature trees with natural privacy, this property includes an older mobile home that is being sold as is, making it ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a homesite with existing utilities already in place. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway spot, a rental investment, or a place to build or replace with your own vision, this property offers plenty of potential. The spacious lot provides room to customize while enjoying a quiet, established setting close to area amenities and outdoor recreation. Sold AS IS. Bring your ideas and make this property your own!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Wooded lot
• Existing utilities

Tags

• ACRE LOT
• WOODED LOT
• NATURAL PRIVACY
• EXISTING UTILITIES
• QUIET ESTABLISHED SETTING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $57k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Camden County (town): math 56% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #9 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Camden County High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #37 of 424 statewide, top 9%, 2,673 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 383 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($394 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $57k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,870 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.57%
• DSCR: 4.90
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,034
• List price: $57,000
• Delta: -77.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $78,320
• Equity at exit: $51,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.2%
• Equity multiple: 13.17×
• Total profit: $194,192
• Equity at exit: $110,738

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31569

• Home prices YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $310/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $981

Max offer price $57,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $770	-5% $754	+0% $738	+5% $722	+10% $706
Rent	-10% $587	-5% $662	+0% $738	+5% $814	+10% $889
Rate	-1.0pp $767	-0.5pp $753	base $738	+0.5pp $723	+1.0pp $708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $57,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $57,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $57,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $57,000 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    .46 Acre Lot Near Harriett's Bluff Boat Ramp - Sold As Is -- Opportunity awaits with this .46-acre wooded lot just minutes from the popular Harriett's Bluff Boat Ramp, offering quick access to the water for boating, fishing, and coastal living. Nestled among mature trees with natural privacy, this property includes an older mobile home that is being sold as is, making it ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a homesite with existing utilities already in place. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway spot, a rental investment, or a place to build or replace with your own vision, this property offers plenty of potential. The spacious lot provides room to customize while enjoying a quiet, established setting close to area amenities and outdoor recreation. Sold AS IS. Bring your ideas and make this property your own!

17. 2026-02-11
    listed $59,999 New 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    .46 Acre Lot Near Harriett's Bluff Boat Ramp - Sold As Is -- Opportunity awaits with this .46-acre wooded lot just minutes from the popular Harriett's Bluff Boat Ramp, offering quick access to the water for boating, fishing, and coastal living. Nestled among mature trees with natural privacy, this property includes an older mobile home that is being sold as is, making it ideal for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a homesite with existing utilities already in place. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway spot, a rental investment, or a place to build or replace with your own vision, this property offers plenty of potential. The spacious lot provides room to customize while enjoying a quiet, established setting close to area amenities and outdoor recreation. Sold AS IS. Bring your ideas and make this property your own!

18. 2025-01-29
    historical
19. 2024-12-02
    status Back On Market
20. 2024-12-01
    historical
21. 2024-10-24
    status Back On Market
22. 2024-09-06
    status Under Contract
23. 2024-08-16
    price $44,000
24. 2024-08-15
    listed $19,999 New
25. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $32,500 Sold
26. 2022-07-01
    status Under Contract
27. 2022-06-27
    status Back On Market
28. 2022-05-09
    status Under Contract
29. 2022-04-15
    listed $35,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $310 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $524 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$215/yr (+$18/mo · 69.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$310
• − Insurance: −$5,404
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable income: $8,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,098
• After-tax cash flow: $6,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County
• NCES district ID: 1300780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,668
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2331
• State rank: #9 of 174 in GA

Livability — St. Marys

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,998

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,358 people
• By 2030: 54,841 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,295 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 51,529 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 42,990 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 33,094 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.7) · D 31.9% · R 67.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.5pp · 2024: -35.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.7 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+23.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.51%
• Current HPI: 326.5284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+62.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $57,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $59,999 GAMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-12-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-12-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-10-24 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-09-06 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $44,000 GAMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $19,999 GAMLS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) $32,500 GAMLS
• 2022-07-01 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-06-27 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-05-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-04-15 Listed $35,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $310 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.