9212 Blue Lake Dr · Pinebrook, TX 77363

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2016 1.11 ac lot $89/sqft · at area comps Est $125k · at est. ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring All Offers! Motivated Seller. Investors and buyers looking to build their vacation or dream home, this is your opportunity. This property offers a peaceful, wooded setting, with the freedom to build or finish the home as you wish, free from HOA restrictions and with a low tax rate. Essential utilities are already in place, including electricity, a private water well, a septic system, and a Generac generator, providing convenience and peace of mind. The spacious lot provides ample room for outdoor living, whether you envision a large patio, garden, pool, workshop, or simply an open space to enjoy the surrounding nature. The interior of the home is not completed

Key facts

• Generac generator
• Wooded setting
• Low tax rate

Tags

• WOODED SETTING
• LOW TAX RATE
• ESSENTIAL UTILITIES
• PRIVATE WATER WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• GENERAC GENERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.13%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,000
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9212 Blue Lake Dr	0.00mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$125,000	$89	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $37,604
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $102,317
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77363

• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,625/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $389	+0% $354	+5% $318	+10% $283
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $294	+0% $354	+5% $414	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $386	base $354	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 675-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   Bring All Offers! Motivated Seller. Investors and buyers looking to build their vacation or dream home, this is your opportunity. This property offers a peaceful, wooded setting, with the freedom to build or finish the home as you wish, free from HOA restrictions and with a low tax rate. Essential utilities are already in place, including electricity, a private water well, a septic system, and a Generac generator, providing convenience and peace of mind. The spacious lot provides ample room for outdoor living, whether you envision a large patio, garden, pool, workshop, or simply an open space to enjoy the surrounding nature. The interior of the home is not completed

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 675-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   Bring All Offers! Motivated Seller. Investors and buyers looking to build their vacation or dream home, this is your opportunity. This property offers a peaceful, wooded setting, with the freedom to build or finish the home as you wish, free from HOA restrictions and with a low tax rate. Essential utilities are already in place, including electricity, a private water well, a septic system, and a Generac generator, providing convenience and peace of mind. The spacious lot provides ample room for outdoor living, whether you envision a large patio, garden, pool, workshop, or simply an open space to enjoy the surrounding nature. The interior of the home is not completed

3. 2026-03-05
   listed $125,000 Active 675-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   Bring All Offers! Motivated Seller. Investors and buyers looking to build their vacation or dream home, this is your opportunity. This property offers a peaceful, wooded setting, with the freedom to build or finish the home as you wish, free from HOA restrictions and with a low tax rate. Essential utilities are already in place, including electricity, a private water well, a septic system, and a Generac generator, providing convenience and peace of mind. The spacious lot provides ample room for outdoor living, whether you envision a large patio, garden, pool, workshop, or simply an open space to enjoy the surrounding nature. The interior of the home is not completed

4. 2026-03-03
   historical
5. 2026-01-20
   price $149,000
6. 2026-01-13
   price $164,000
7. 2025-11-30
   price $169,000
8. 2025-11-13
   listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 40.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,625
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$572
• After-tax cash flow: $3,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navasota ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832190
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,326
• Composite: 26.5/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #600 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinebrook

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,246

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $179,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+35.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,625 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.