1311 Town Cir #4 · Baytown, TX 77520

$129,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,860 sqft · Townhouse public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1972 2,000 sqft lot $69/sqft · 18% below area Est $158k · 18% under $130/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special with strong upside potential! This poolside townhome is ready for a full renovation and offers a great opportunity to reimagine the space. The existing layout features an open-concept living and dining area upon entry, along with a centrally located kitchen footprint that can be redesigned to suit modern tastes. A secondary bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections are located on the first floor. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious living area with a fireplace and access to a covered patio overlooking the pool and courtyard—an ideal feature to enhance in a future remodel. With two sliding doors bringing in natural light and a flexible floorplan, this property is a blank canvas for investors or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. Bring your vision and unlock the potential this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Poolside townhome
• Flexible floorplan
• $130 HOA

Tags

• POOLSIDE TOWNHOME
• FLEXIBLE FLOORPLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-465/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (5.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James Bowie El (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 613 students, 88% FRL); Cedar Bayou J H (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 969 students, 81% FRL); Sterling H S (math 53% / reading 44%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 2,098 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 61% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $129k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,835
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -18.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1303 Town Cir #4	0.01mi	3/2.5	2,052 (+10%)	2mo	$169,000	$82	81
1309 Town Cir #4	0.00mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,860 (0%)	17mo	$155,000	$83	80
1310 Ward Rd #5	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,976 (+6%)	24mo	$188,900	$96	68
1328 Ward Rd #5	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,132 (+15%)	12mo	$185,000	$87	63
2020 E James St E	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,732 (-7%)	20mo	$165,000	$95	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-25,671
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-34,625
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,378/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $122,152

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-2	+0% $-39	+5% $-75	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-98	+0% $-39	+5% $21	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-6	base $-39	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Madison St Baytown, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	45d	1	0.18mi
804 Pearl St Unit 1 Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$1,540	$0.92	26d	1	0.39mi
1804 Chilton Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	1255	$1,720	$1.37	26d	1	0.40mi
1519 Barcelona Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	0.50mi
2300 Taft Cir Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,065	$0.99	0d	19	0.54mi
607 Vista Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,475	$1.20	45d	1	0.54mi
2101 E Fayle St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,595	$0.95	45d	1	0.67mi
1000 S Shepherd Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,500	$0.96	45d	1	0.85mi
2500 E James Ave Baytown, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,408	$1.29	0d	16	0.89mi
700 Meadowglen Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	26d	1	1.20mi
700 Meadowglen Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	1d	1	1.20mi
305 Kelly Ln Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,000	$0.61	17d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-03-23
    listed $129,000 Active 864-char remark

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    Investor special with strong upside potential! This poolside townhome is ready for a full renovation and offers a great opportunity to reimagine the space. The existing layout features an open-concept living and dining area upon entry, along with a centrally located kitchen footprint that can be redesigned to suit modern tastes. A secondary bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections are located on the first floor. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious living area with a fireplace and access to a covered patio overlooking the pool and courtyard—an ideal feature to enhance in a future remodel. With two sliding doors bringing in natural light and a flexible floorplan, this property is a blank canvas for investors or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. Bring your vision and unlock the potential this property has to offer!

15. 2019-08-05
    soldstatus
16. 2019-08-03
    historical 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Look no further! This move in ready pool side townhome has it all! Entering the front door you find the open concept family or formal area. Your imagination begins to race as you think of the many ways to arrange furniture, artwork, and other decorations. The kitchen is bright, functional, and central to the home with everything you need and no wasted space. A roomy second bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections complete the first floor. As you reach the top of the stairs your eyes take in the elegant wood floor in the huge living room with an amazing second floor fireplace. There are 2 sliding doors and a covered patio area where you can enjoy the view of the pool and courtyard while having morning coffee. Also on the second floor is the roomy and functional master suite. Each part of this dreamy home offers the decorator a ton of design opportunities. Schedule your private showing today before this beauty is gone! Per seller, No Harvey Flooding!

17. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus Sold 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Look no further! This move in ready pool side townhome has it all! Entering the front door you find the open concept family or formal area. Your imagination begins to race as you think of the many ways to arrange furniture, artwork, and other decorations. The kitchen is bright, functional, and central to the home with everything you need and no wasted space. A roomy second bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections complete the first floor. As you reach the top of the stairs your eyes take in the elegant wood floor in the huge living room with an amazing second floor fireplace. There are 2 sliding doors and a covered patio area where you can enjoy the view of the pool and courtyard while having morning coffee. Also on the second floor is the roomy and functional master suite. Each part of this dreamy home offers the decorator a ton of design opportunities. Schedule your private showing today before this beauty is gone! Per seller, No Harvey Flooding!

18. 2019-07-17
    status Pending 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Look no further! This move in ready pool side townhome has it all! Entering the front door you find the open concept family or formal area. Your imagination begins to race as you think of the many ways to arrange furniture, artwork, and other decorations. The kitchen is bright, functional, and central to the home with everything you need and no wasted space. A roomy second bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections complete the first floor. As you reach the top of the stairs your eyes take in the elegant wood floor in the huge living room with an amazing second floor fireplace. There are 2 sliding doors and a covered patio area where you can enjoy the view of the pool and courtyard while having morning coffee. Also on the second floor is the roomy and functional master suite. Each part of this dreamy home offers the decorator a ton of design opportunities. Schedule your private showing today before this beauty is gone! Per seller, No Harvey Flooding!

19. 2019-07-09
    status Option Pending 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Look no further! This move in ready pool side townhome has it all! Entering the front door you find the open concept family or formal area. Your imagination begins to race as you think of the many ways to arrange furniture, artwork, and other decorations. The kitchen is bright, functional, and central to the home with everything you need and no wasted space. A roomy second bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections complete the first floor. As you reach the top of the stairs your eyes take in the elegant wood floor in the huge living room with an amazing second floor fireplace. There are 2 sliding doors and a covered patio area where you can enjoy the view of the pool and courtyard while having morning coffee. Also on the second floor is the roomy and functional master suite. Each part of this dreamy home offers the decorator a ton of design opportunities. Schedule your private showing today before this beauty is gone! Per seller, No Harvey Flooding!

20. 2019-07-04
    price $129,000 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Look no further! This move in ready pool side townhome has it all! Entering the front door you find the open concept family or formal area. Your imagination begins to race as you think of the many ways to arrange furniture, artwork, and other decorations. The kitchen is bright, functional, and central to the home with everything you need and no wasted space. A roomy second bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections complete the first floor. As you reach the top of the stairs your eyes take in the elegant wood floor in the huge living room with an amazing second floor fireplace. There are 2 sliding doors and a covered patio area where you can enjoy the view of the pool and courtyard while having morning coffee. Also on the second floor is the roomy and functional master suite. Each part of this dreamy home offers the decorator a ton of design opportunities. Schedule your private showing today before this beauty is gone! Per seller, No Harvey Flooding!

21. 2019-06-28
    listed $135,000 Active 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    Look no further! This move in ready pool side townhome has it all! Entering the front door you find the open concept family or formal area. Your imagination begins to race as you think of the many ways to arrange furniture, artwork, and other decorations. The kitchen is bright, functional, and central to the home with everything you need and no wasted space. A roomy second bedroom and utility area with washer and dryer connections complete the first floor. As you reach the top of the stairs your eyes take in the elegant wood floor in the huge living room with an amazing second floor fireplace. There are 2 sliding doors and a covered patio area where you can enjoy the view of the pool and courtyard while having morning coffee. Also on the second floor is the roomy and functional master suite. Each part of this dreamy home offers the decorator a ton of design opportunities. Schedule your private showing today before this beauty is gone! Per seller, No Harvey Flooding!

22. 2002-11-01
    historical
23. 2002-04-26
    listed $84,900
24. 2000-08-31
    soldstatus
25. 2000-08-01
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,378 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,378 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$4,378
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,442
• − Management: −$1,442
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+65.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-04 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-28 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2002-11-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-04-26 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2000-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,378 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.