5497 Jefferson Paige Rd · Shreveport, LA 71119

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 2005 1.27 ac lot $97/sqft · 44% below area Est $206k · 27% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully remodeled 2 - bedroom, 1 - bath home offers 1,183 sq. ft. of modern comfort on a spacious lot with room to relax and entertain. Every detail has been updated, including freshly painted interior and exterior, new windows, doors, light fixtures, wiring, plumbing, roof, and more. The stunning kitchen features brand new cabinets, granite countertops, and new appliances. The bathroom has been fully renovated with stylish finishes. Enjoy cozy evenings in the living room with abundant natural light, or step outside onto your new deck overlooking peaceful acreage. Enjoy plenty of storage and covered parking with a 1200 sq. ft. detached garage and a 400 sq. ft. detached workshop! Conveniently located just minutes from I-20, this home combines quiet country charm with easy city access!

Key facts

• New doors
• Spacious lot
• New appliances

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-919/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,648 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,097
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -27.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3792 Lakeside Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,543 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$162	77
3833 Lakeside Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (-1%)	3mo	$245,900	$161	75
3841 Lakeside Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,586 (+3%)	1mo	$227,500	$143	72
3650 Crestview Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (+7%)	8mo	$259,000	$157	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-29,235
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-32,007
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71119

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $657/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $136,367

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4129 Lamar Ave Shreveport, LA	2.0	1.0	1178	$875	$0.74	21d	1	1.33mi
4131 Barbara Ave Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $149,900 Pending 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-02-08
   price $149,900 813-char remark

   Show marketing remark (813 chars)

   This beautifully remodeled 2 - bedroom, 1 - bath home offers 1,183 sq. ft. of modern comfort on a spacious lot with room to relax and entertain. Every detail has been updated, including freshly painted interior and exterior, new windows, doors, light fixtures, wiring, plumbing, roof, and more. The stunning kitchen features brand new cabinets, granite countertops, and new appliances. The bathroom has been fully renovated with stylish finishes. Enjoy cozy evenings in the living room with abundant natural light, or step outside onto your new deck overlooking peaceful acreage. Enjoy plenty of storage and covered parking with a 1200 sq. ft. detached garage and a 400 sq. ft. detached workshop! Conveniently located just minutes from I-20, this home combines quiet country charm with easy city access!

8. 2026-01-11
   listed $159,000 Active 813-char remark

   Show marketing remark (813 chars)

   This beautifully remodeled 2 - bedroom, 1 - bath home offers 1,183 sq. ft. of modern comfort on a spacious lot with room to relax and entertain. Every detail has been updated, including freshly painted interior and exterior, new windows, doors, light fixtures, wiring, plumbing, roof, and more. The stunning kitchen features brand new cabinets, granite countertops, and new appliances. The bathroom has been fully renovated with stylish finishes. Enjoy cozy evenings in the living room with abundant natural light, or step outside onto your new deck overlooking peaceful acreage. Enjoy plenty of storage and covered parking with a 1200 sq. ft. detached garage and a 400 sq. ft. detached workshop! Conveniently located just minutes from I-20, this home combines quiet country charm with easy city access!

9. 2026-01-08
   historical
10. 2025-12-17
    price $159,000
11. 2025-11-20
    price $179,000
12. 2025-09-30
    listed $189,000 Active
13. 2002-09-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$167/yr (+$14/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$657
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $-52/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 164,123
• Population (ZIP): 10,364

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 34% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.76%
• Current HPI: 129.6866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2002-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $657 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.