4040 Joslyn Rd · Orion, MI 48359

$285,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1958 0.48 ac lot Est $299k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Epique Realty; Directions: Take 75 to Joslyn Road exit, head north to the address (west side of the road)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener; Garage faces front and side
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Lot approximately 0.48 acres (100 x 230); Subdivision: DAWSON WOODS 1; Property faces along Brown/Clarkston cross streets
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Finished basement
• Exterior features: Porch; Back yard fencing; Fenced yard; Asphalt roof; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Stainless steel appliances; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Finished walk-out basement with sump pump; Lighting
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Webber School (math 70% / reading 76%, grade A, #50 of 1,397 statewide, top 4%, 518 students, 20% FRL); Waldon Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 547 students, 26% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,783 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,944
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3988 Joslyn Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	15mo	$257,000	$143	75
2430 Judah Rd	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-1%)	5mo	$565,000	$330	66
3826 Chesterfield Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+2%)	8mo	$275,000	$157	51
3658 Minton Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (-10%)	6mo	$285,000	$184	47
1410 W Silverbell Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-3%)	13mo	$441,000	$263	46
3707 Minton Rd	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,573 (-9%)	16mo	$275,000	$175	45
3429 Chalice Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-3%)	21mo	$289,000	$173	44
3730 Minton Rd	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,572 (-9%)	22mo	$250,000	$159	40
3400 Chalice Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-12%)	13mo	$190,000	$125	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-39,815
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-26,630
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48359

• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,446/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $182	+0% $101	+5% $20	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $5	+0% $101	+5% $197	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $244	-0.5pp $173	base $101	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4694 Baldwin Sq Dr Orion Twp, MI	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1845	$2,525	$1.37	0d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 651-char remark

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

3. 2026-04-16
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 651-char remark

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

4. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

5. 2026-04-10
   listed $285,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

6. 2026-04-10
   listed $285,000 Active 651-char remark

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

7. 2026-04-06
   historical $285,000 651-char remark

   Show marketing remark (651 chars)

   HIGHEST AND BEST, Sunday, April 12th - Well-maintained 3-bedroom home featuring a beautifully updated spacious kitchen with granite countertops and included appliances opens to a 3-seasons room - perfect for additional living space. Handicap-accessible full bath with walk-in design. Finished walkout basement offers great entertaining potential with a built-in bar, plus a dedicated workshop area. Major updates include furnace (2023) and hot water heater (2021), newer roof and AC unit along with a whole house generator. Enjoy the fenced backyard and 2-car detached garage. Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, parks, and schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,446 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,417 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$972/yr (+$81/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,446
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$3,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$877
• After-tax cash flow: $2,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 10,401
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 10,401
• Household income: $93,125
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 292.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.39%
• Current HPI: 168.0362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $285,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $285,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon $285,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,446 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.