Plan 1454 Plan · Santa Rosa, CA 95404

$589,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,454 sqft · MultiFamily · 61 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Covered front porch * Spacious living/dining area * Kitchen peninsula * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Dedicated laundry area * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * Quartz kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Outdoor recreation nearby * Local wineries * Close to ocean * Near entertainment and leisure * Close to family friendly parks * Short drive to the airport

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Low-e windows
• Kitchen peninsula

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN PENINSULA
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $629,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; 1 total parking space
• Home design: New construction plan (Plan 1454); Single-family residence (plan)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 plan (Plan 1454)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,454 (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $590k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $891 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $590k).
• Recommended offer: $555k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,289/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 1663% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($555k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $554,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.47%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-50,559
• Equity at exit: $87,969

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-17,173
• Equity at exit: $51,012

Cash invested: $165,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95404

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 23.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,094
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$737 /mo · $8,850/yr
• Insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,321
• Net cashflow: $891

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,161

Max offer price $589,990

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,299	-5% $1,095	+0% $891	+5% $687	+10% $483
Rent	-10% $394	-5% $643	+0% $891	+5% $1,139	+10% $1,388
Rate	-1.0pp $1,188	-0.5pp $1,041	base $891	+0.5pp $738	+1.0pp $583

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$6,288
Total (3 units)			$6,289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,498
• Closing costs: $17,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Doubles Dr Unit 105 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1231	$2,895	$2.35	14d	1	0.24mi
1001 Doubles Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1231	$2,750	$2.23	14d	1	0.24mi
960 Doubles Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1038	$3,399	$3.27	14d	3	0.27mi
3851 Sebastopol Rd #105 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	14d	1	0.28mi
920 Doubles Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.5	1013	$2,450	$2.42	14d	1	0.30mi
1765 W 3rd St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	14d	1	1.04mi
1248 Sunset Ave Unit Home Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$2,700	$2.35	24d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $589,990 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $589,990 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $589,990 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $589,990 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $589,990 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $589,990 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $589,990 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $589,990 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $589,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $589,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $589,990 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $589,990 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $589,990 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $589,990 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $589,990 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $589,990 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,049
• − Property taxes: −$8,850
• − Insurance: −$2,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,037
• − Management: −$6,037
• − Depreciation: −$17,163
• Taxable income: $1,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$332
• After-tax cash flow: $10,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This multi-family property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home automation system — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and property value
• Both Smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home automation system — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and property value ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and ambiance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,011
• Household income: $105,437
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -797.65%
• Current HPI: 244.7593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B