613 Turquoise Trl · Tool, TX 75143

$39,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2022 3,964 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property at 613 Turquoise Trail in Tool, Texas, offers a unique investment opportunity located near Cedar Creek Reservoir. Featuring an estimated 2,200 square feet of living space, the home sits on a manageable lot and presents a blank canvas for a complete rehabilitation or a fresh start. The property requires significant structural and cosmetic remediation and is being sold strictly as-is, making it ideal for a total flip or redevelopment project in a highly desirable lakeside community.

Key facts

• Lakeside community
• 3,964 sq ft lot
• Built 2022

Tags

• CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR
• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is detached (not attached); Lot is less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.091 acre); Parcel number 31600002009054
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Co-op electric available; Electricity available; MUD water; MUD sewer; Located in a Municipal Utility District
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 2022; Subdivision: Indian Hills Sub
• Construction: Year built 2022
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Water/lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level 1) — approx. 8 x 10
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open floorplan; One level
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 2.8% in Tool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#651 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 431 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.60%
• DSCR: 3.65
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $1,377
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $12,001
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,417/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $127	+0% $116	+5% $105	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $72	+0% $116	+5% $160	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $126	base $116	+0.5pp $106	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $39,000 Active
18. 2026-05-05
    soldstatus
19. 2015-03-16
    soldstatus
20. 1993-06-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,417 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,417 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$1,417
• − Insurance: −$5,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $1,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$287
• After-tax cash flow: $1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tool

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #651
• US rank: #12292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tool, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $39,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+29.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,417 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.