738 Main St · Vincentown, NJ 08048

$280,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1954 6,969 sqft lot Est $338k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Natural gas hot water; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated year built; major renovation effective 2018
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Lot dimensions approximately 85 x 81

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven (self-cleaning); Dishwasher; Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (including master bedroom, Bedroom 1, Bedroom 2)
• Flooring: Fully carpeted; Tile/brick
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Attic
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($656/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Vincentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lumberton Township Board Of Education (suburban): math 20% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #292 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $280k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,837 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
738 Main St	0.00mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	1mo	$290,000	$302	99
6 Hollybrook Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	9mo	$338,000	$352	90
46 Rockland Ter	0.24mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$365,000	$380	87
19 Hemsing Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	10mo	$329,000	$343	83
27 Rockland Ter	0.19mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	11mo	$340,000	$354	82
56 Nassau Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	8mo	$330,000	$344	80
8 Hollybrook Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+15%)	7mo	$324,999	$294	66
11 S Hunterdon Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-1%)	2mo	$205,000	$215	65
218 Spout Spring Ave	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,066 (+11%)	9mo	$400,000	$375	63
8 Easlick Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	7mo	$315,000	$375	62
44 Rockland Ter	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,095 (+14%)	6mo	$363,900	$332	60
245 Spout Spring Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-9%)	11mo	$315,000	$360	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-41,830
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-31,704
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08048

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,577/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Windmill Way Lumberton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	947	$2,315	$2.44	1d	29	1.09mi
509 Hainesport Lumberton Rd Unit 1 Hainesport, NJ	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	1d	1	1.24mi
302 Barrington Ct Mt Holly, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1226	$2,959	$2.41	1d	9	1.32mi
105 Broad St Unit 1 Mt Holly, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	1d	1	1.37mi
102 Ridgway St Unit 1 Mt Holly, NJ	3.0	2.5	850	$2,200	$2.59	1d	1	1.39mi
1 Kirby Ct Mt Holly, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1349	$3,125	$2.32	1d	12	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $280,000 Active
3. 2018-06-07
   soldstatus $146,900
4. 2018-05-09
   soldstatus $146,900 Sold 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

5. 2018-05-09
   soldstatus $146,900 Closed 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

6. 2018-04-13
   status Pending 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

7. 2018-04-13
   status Under Contract 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

8. 2018-03-08
   price $139,900 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

9. 2018-03-08
   price $139,900 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

10. 2018-02-13
    price $149,900 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

11. 2018-01-03
    listed $159,900 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

12. 2018-01-03
    listed $149,900 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    Back on the market and totally remodeled! Beautiful ranch in Lumberton completely remodeled. Your like home features an all new Kitchen with ceramic tile floors, granite countertops, new cabinets and stainless steel appliances. New bath with tile floors and new fixtures. New paint and floor coverings thru out as well as a new siding, new windows, newer roof and a new Hot water heater. Will not last!

13. 2017-10-09
    historical
14. 2017-08-31
    listed $59,900
15. 2013-01-19
    historical
16. 2012-01-19
    listed $69,000
17. 2011-12-31
    historical
18. 2010-12-30
    listed $100,000
19. 2001-05-21
    soldstatus $78,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,577 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,774 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,198/yr (+$100/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,577
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,456
• − Management: −$2,456
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$964
• After-tax cash flow: $1,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton Township Board Of Education
• NCES district ID: 3409180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $81,262
• Composite: 30.76/100
• National rank: #6157
• State rank: #292 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vincentown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 12,882
• Household income: $113,440
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 365.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.09%
• Current HPI: 296.5422
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+256.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $146,900 Public Records
• 2018-05-09 Sold (MLS) $146,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-09 Sold (MLS) $146,900 TREND
• 2018-04-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-13 Pending — TREND
• 2018-03-08 Price Changed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-08 Price Changed $139,900 TREND
• 2018-02-13 Price Changed $149,900 TREND
• 2018-01-03 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-03 Listed $159,900 TREND
• 2017-10-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-08-31 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-01-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-01-19 Listed $69,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-12-30 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,577 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.