2411 Melbourne St · Richmond, VA 23223

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 818 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1905 6,751 sqft lot Est $178k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom on corner lot with detached shed. Hardwood Floors

Key facts

• 6,751 sq ft lot
• Built 1905
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairfield Court Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,051 of 1,108 statewide, top 96%, 251 students, 98% FRL); Martin Luther King Jr. Middle (math 4% / reading 7%, grade F, #342 of 342 statewide, top 100%, 501 students, 96% FRL); Armstrong High (math 12% / reading 54%, grade F, #316 of 319 statewide, top 99%, 747 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 74% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Richmond City Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $135k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.53%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,324
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2003 N 20th St	0.34mi	3/1.0	804 (-2%)	4mo	$199,900	$249	78
2100 Wood St	0.26mi	3/1.0	862 (+5%)	6mo	$203,000	$235	74
2117 Selden St	0.47mi	3/1.0	796 (-3%)	2mo	$190,000	$239	72
1508 N 20th St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-0%)	6mo	$235,000	$288	68
1906 Maddox St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+12%)	2mo	$198,500	$218	67
2511 Redwood	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	698 (-15%)	0mo	$108,000	$155	67
1801 N 19th St	0.27mi	2/1.5 (-1)	870 (+6%)	7mo	$224,500	$258	64
2502 Redwood Ave	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	698 (-15%)	7mo	$145,000	$208	63
2013 Cool Ln	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	761 (-7%)	1mo	$160,000	$210	61
1429 Rogers St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	893 (+9%)	3mo	$179,000	$200	57
1602 N 24th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	898 (+10%)	3mo	$157,000	$175	50
2503 Peter Paul Blvd	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-12%)	8mo	$150,000	$208	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,421
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $53,812
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23223

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $888/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,061

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $370	+0% $332	+5% $293	+10% $255
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $273	+0% $332	+5% $390	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $366	base $332	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2423 Whitcomb St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	25d	1	0.15mi
2106 Wood St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	862	$1,814	$2.10	21d	1	0.25mi
2021 Fairfield Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	785	$1,195	$1.52	16d	1	0.38mi
1901 Whitcomb St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	25d	1	0.39mi
2100 Phaup St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	25d	1	0.43mi
2108 Phaup St Unit D Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	25d	1	0.46mi
2016 Fairmount Ave Apt 2 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,007	$1.01	16d	1	0.64mi
2016 Fairmount Ave Apt 2 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,007	$1.01	45d	1	0.64mi
1108 N 21st St Unit B Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,799	$1.80	4d	1	0.74mi
2200 Carrington St Unit 300 Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	880	$1,435	$1.63	45d	1	0.86mi
2200 Carrington St Unit 301 Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	890	$1,435	$1.61	17d	1	0.86mi
2706 Selden St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	862	$1,895	$2.20	45d	1	0.87mi
1906 N 29th St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	6d	1	0.92mi
2906 Nine Mile Rd Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	885	$1,845	$2.08	25d	1	0.97mi
1603 N 29th St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	6d	1	0.97mi
306 St Claire Ln Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1017	$1,595	$1.57	4d	1	0.99mi
200 Minor St Unit A Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	25d	1	1.03mi
2852 Fairfield Ave Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	6d	1	1.07mi
2000 Lamb Ave Apt C Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	45d	1	1.07mi
500 N 18th St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,837	$2.49	3d	11	1.08mi
2919 4th Ave #2 Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,287	$1.35	45d	1	1.13mi
2810 2nd Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,950	$1.74	45d	1	1.14mi
1910 North Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,595	$1.58	12d	1	1.17mi
3119 4th Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	820	$1,225	$1.49	18d	1	1.22mi
700 N 2nd St Unit 203 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	690	$1,250	$1.81	45d	1	1.22mi
1820 E Broad St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	665	$2,476	$3.72	22d	15	1.23mi
1903 E Marshall St Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	723	$1,799	$2.49	3d	57	1.23mi
2400 Barton Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	813	$1,245	$1.53	6d	2	1.28mi
15 N 18th St Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	852	$1,438	$1.69	16d	2	1.29mi
2416 Barton Ave Apt 2 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	45d	1	1.31mi
403 Fritz St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	45d	1	1.32mi
2001 E Broad St Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,790	$2.14	3d	4	1.32mi
2420 Barton Ave Apt 2 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	25d	1	1.33mi
1606 Fendall Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,349	$1.64	45d	1	1.33mi
1610 Fendall Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,249	$1.51	45d	1	1.33mi
417 Fritz St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,295	$1.79	45d	1	1.34mi
1605 Hickory St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,249	$1.51	45d	1	1.35mi
1611 Hickory St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,449	$1.76	45d	1	1.36mi
1508 Hickory St Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,195	$1.65	45d	1	1.36mi
220 E Marshall St Apt 34 Richmond, VA	2.0	2.0	914	$1,650	$1.81	3d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-09-04
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-25
   status Active
3. 2025-08-25
   price $135,000
4. 2025-06-20
   listed $195,000 Active
5. 2010-04-27
   soldstatus $36,000 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   2 bedroom on corner lot with detached shed. Hardwood Floors

6. 2010-04-07
   historical 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   2 bedroom on corner lot with detached shed. Hardwood Floors

7. 2010-01-27
   listed $37,500 59-char remark

   Show marketing remark (59 chars)

   2 bedroom on corner lot with detached shed. Hardwood Floors

8. 2006-03-27
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$888
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,422
• − Management: −$1,422
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$450
• After-tax cash flow: $3,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103240
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,276
• Composite: 33.09/100
• National rank: #5564
• State rank: #123 of 131 in VA

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #793

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime D- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Richmond, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 287,109
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 54,659
• Household income: $55,731
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3530.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,263 people
• By 2030: 284,503 · +8.5%
• By 2040: 327,353 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 367,946 · +40.3%
• By 2075: 449,560 · +71.4%
• By 2100: 500,301 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+66.3) · D 82.0% · R 15.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: 59.1pp · 2024: 66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+66.3 2020: D+68.0 2016: D+63.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+59.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.81%
• Current HPI: 324.0589
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.38%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+237.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-08-25 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $135,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $195,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-04-27 Sold (MLS) $36,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-04-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-01-27 Listed $37,500 CVRMLS
• 2006-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $888 · +29.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.