12 Elizabeth Ln · Orange Lake, NY 12553

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1956 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Features a large great room off of kitchen. Great neighborhood for children!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached underground parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Partially finished basement with storage space and walk-out access; Unfinished basement area; Pull-down attic stairs; One-level living (single story); 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $285,805 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,040
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Bivona Ln #11	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	10mo	$143,000	$115	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-42,306
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-28,642
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,645/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,738

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
853 Little Britain Rd New Windsor, NY	3.0	1.5	1328	$2,700	$2.03	13d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $299,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $425,000 Active 1 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    historical $425,000
18. 2022-07-08
    soldstatus $300,000
19. 2005-04-05
    soldstatus $220,000
20. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus $220,000 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Features a large great room off of kitchen. Great neighborhood for children!

21. 2005-02-11
    price $229,000 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Features a large great room off of kitchen. Great neighborhood for children!

22. 2005-02-11
    historical 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Features a large great room off of kitchen. Great neighborhood for children!

23. 2004-08-11
    listed $220,000 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Features a large great room off of kitchen. Great neighborhood for children!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,645 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,645 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,645
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,744
• − Management: −$2,744
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$907
• After-tax cash flow: $2,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 27,384
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Coming Soon $425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-01 Sold (MLS) $220,000 HGMLS
• 2005-02-11 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2005-02-11 Price Changed $229,000 HGMLS
• 2004-08-11 Listed $220,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,645 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.