530 Hogestown Rd · Silver Spring, PA 17050

$229,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1950 0.37 ac lot Est $223k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming Cape Cod-style home in Cumberland Valley School District! This home boasts hardwood floors throughout most of the home, and new vinyl flooring in the kitchen. On the main level, you will find an open floor plan in the kitchen, dining and living rooms, along with a convenient 1st floor bedroom. Upstairs in another bedroom, along with a lovely loft area that can be used for an office, walk-in closet, reading or playroom. An upstairs balcony completes the 2nd level. Part of the basement is set up as a home theater, perfect for movie nights or added living room space. The basement also provides a lot of storage space. Newer roof with 50 yr shingles and transferable warranty! Washer/dryer and theater system is negotiable with acceptable offer. Conveniently located near main roads/highways, shopping, restaurants and parks, this home is a joy to own.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Year built per assessor; Above-grade finished living area reported by assessor
• Construction: Aluminum siding and block with stick-built components; Block foundation; Composite/shingle roof; Basement: full, interior access, partially finished; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Outbuilding(s); Level lot; Chain link fencing; Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; One bedroom on the first upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood / solid hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on first upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning; 200+ amp electric service
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Combination dining and living area; Entry-level bedroom; Traditional floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and electric dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($467/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Silver Spring El Sch (math 61% / reading 76%, grade B+, #181 of 1,518 statewide, top 12%, 516 students, 28% FRL); Eagle View Ms (math 39% / reading 67%, grade C+, #90 of 512 statewide, top 19%, 1,021 students, 29% FRL); Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,888 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,885
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 Hogestown Rd	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,227 (+7%)	4mo	$239,500	$195	71
124 Woods Dr #9	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,204 (+5%)	11mo	$47,500	$39	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,755
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,778
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17050

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,297/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $104	+0% $39	+5% $-26	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-38	+0% $39	+5% $116	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $97	base $39	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $229,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $229,900 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Coming Soon 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Coming Soon 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Coming Soon 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Coming Soon 7 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    historical $229,900
19. 2026-02-20
    historical
20. 2026-01-20
    price $275,000
21. 2025-11-24
    listed $285,000 Active
22. 2021-12-09
    soldstatus $165,000
23. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Cape Cod-style home in Cumberland Valley School District! This home boasts hardwood floors throughout most of the home, and new vinyl flooring in the kitchen. On the main level, you will find an open floor plan in the kitchen, dining and living rooms, along with a convenient 1st floor bedroom. Upstairs in another bedroom, along with a lovely loft area that can be used for an office, walk-in closet, reading or playroom. An upstairs balcony completes the 2nd level. Part of the basement is set up as a home theater, perfect for movie nights or added living room space. The basement also provides a lot of storage space. Newer roof with 50 yr shingles and transferable warranty! Washer/dryer and theater system is negotiable with acceptable offer. Conveniently located near main roads/highways, shopping, restaurants and parks, this home is a joy to own.

24. 2021-10-23
    status Pending 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Cape Cod-style home in Cumberland Valley School District! This home boasts hardwood floors throughout most of the home, and new vinyl flooring in the kitchen. On the main level, you will find an open floor plan in the kitchen, dining and living rooms, along with a convenient 1st floor bedroom. Upstairs in another bedroom, along with a lovely loft area that can be used for an office, walk-in closet, reading or playroom. An upstairs balcony completes the 2nd level. Part of the basement is set up as a home theater, perfect for movie nights or added living room space. The basement also provides a lot of storage space. Newer roof with 50 yr shingles and transferable warranty! Washer/dryer and theater system is negotiable with acceptable offer. Conveniently located near main roads/highways, shopping, restaurants and parks, this home is a joy to own.

25. 2021-10-12
    status Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Cape Cod-style home in Cumberland Valley School District! This home boasts hardwood floors throughout most of the home, and new vinyl flooring in the kitchen. On the main level, you will find an open floor plan in the kitchen, dining and living rooms, along with a convenient 1st floor bedroom. Upstairs in another bedroom, along with a lovely loft area that can be used for an office, walk-in closet, reading or playroom. An upstairs balcony completes the 2nd level. Part of the basement is set up as a home theater, perfect for movie nights or added living room space. The basement also provides a lot of storage space. Newer roof with 50 yr shingles and transferable warranty! Washer/dryer and theater system is negotiable with acceptable offer. Conveniently located near main roads/highways, shopping, restaurants and parks, this home is a joy to own.

26. 2021-08-20
    status Pending 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Cape Cod-style home in Cumberland Valley School District! This home boasts hardwood floors throughout most of the home, and new vinyl flooring in the kitchen. On the main level, you will find an open floor plan in the kitchen, dining and living rooms, along with a convenient 1st floor bedroom. Upstairs in another bedroom, along with a lovely loft area that can be used for an office, walk-in closet, reading or playroom. An upstairs balcony completes the 2nd level. Part of the basement is set up as a home theater, perfect for movie nights or added living room space. The basement also provides a lot of storage space. Newer roof with 50 yr shingles and transferable warranty! Washer/dryer and theater system is negotiable with acceptable offer. Conveniently located near main roads/highways, shopping, restaurants and parks, this home is a joy to own.

27. 2021-08-14
    listed $165,000 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Cape Cod-style home in Cumberland Valley School District! This home boasts hardwood floors throughout most of the home, and new vinyl flooring in the kitchen. On the main level, you will find an open floor plan in the kitchen, dining and living rooms, along with a convenient 1st floor bedroom. Upstairs in another bedroom, along with a lovely loft area that can be used for an office, walk-in closet, reading or playroom. An upstairs balcony completes the 2nd level. Part of the basement is set up as a home theater, perfect for movie nights or added living room space. The basement also provides a lot of storage space. Newer roof with 50 yr shingles and transferable warranty! Washer/dryer and theater system is negotiable with acceptable offer. Conveniently located near main roads/highways, shopping, restaurants and parks, this home is a joy to own.

28. 2013-06-06
    soldstatus $129,900
29. 2013-06-04
    soldstatus $129,900
30. 2013-04-01
    historical
31. 2012-10-01
    listed $125,900
32. 2003-07-16
    soldstatus $98,500
33. 2003-05-22
    listed $95,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,297 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,964 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$668/yr (+$56/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,297
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$832
• After-tax cash flow: $1,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Silver Spring

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,571
• Household income: $113,720
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.84%
• Current HPI: 241.7363
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+140.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-29 Sold (MLS) $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-14 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2013-06-04 Sold (MLS) $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-04-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-10-01 Listed $125,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-16 Sold (MLS) $98,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-05-22 Listed $95,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,297 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.