423 Bucknor St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1892 4,000 sqft lot $126/sqft · 6% below area Est $138k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two-bedroom home located in the Dunkirk School District, offering a great combination of comfort and value. This property features low-maintenance vinyl siding and several newer replacement windows, helping improve efficiency while minimizing upkeep. Inside, you will find a formal dining room that provides an ideal space for both everyday living and entertaining. A key highlight is the first-floor laundry, delivering added convenience and functional living. The home also includes a new hot water tank, giving peace of mind to the next owner. A one-and-a-half-car garage offers ample storage or workspace options. Step out back to enjoy the porch, a perfect setting for relaxing or hosting during the warmer months. Whether you are looking for a primary residence or a solid investment, this property offers location, updates, and long-term potential.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• New hot water tank
• First-floor laundry

Tags

• DUNKIRK SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• NEWER REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEW HOT WATER TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-698/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunkirk Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,945 of 2,108 statewide, top 94%, 588 students, 73% FRL); Dunkirk Senior High School (math 87%, 882 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dunkirk City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $130k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,000 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,708
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -5.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 E Benton St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+1%)	3mo	$155,000	$149	88
283 Lincoln Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	976 (-6%)	13mo	$125,000	$128	72
17 E Benton St	0.07mi	2/1.0	936 (-10%)	15mo	$89,000	$95	68
406 Franklin Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,153 (+12%)	12mo	$128,900	$112	64
63 Tenney St	0.25mi	2/1.0	970 (-6%)	24mo	$80,000	$82	58
242 Lincoln Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (+8%)	18mo	$99,900	$89	58
3847 Williams St	0.48mi	2/1.0	935 (-10%)	6mo	$35,000	$37	56
10967 S Roberts Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (+7%)	11mo	$129,900	$118	54
745 Grant Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,107 (+7%)	6mo	$159,000	$144	49
66 Kosciuszko Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (-6%)	15mo	$78,500	$81	48
3721 New Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0	936 (-10%)	9mo	$150,000	$160	47
621 Main St	0.68mi	2/1.0	896 (-13%)	22mo	$58,900	$66	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $25,696
• Equity at exit: $73,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $81,104
• Equity at exit: $125,655

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,165/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $119,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-21	+0% $-58	+5% $-95	+10% $-132
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-97	+0% $-58	+5% $-19	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-25	base $-58	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Greco Ln Dunkirk, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$980	$0.91	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Charming two-bedroom home located in the Dunkirk School District, offering a great combination of comfort and value. This property features low-maintenance vinyl siding and several newer replacement windows, helping improve efficiency while minimizing upkeep. Inside, you will find a formal dining room that provides an ideal space for both everyday living and entertaining. A key highlight is the first-floor laundry, delivering added convenience and functional living. The home also includes a new hot water tank, giving peace of mind to the next owner. A one-and-a-half-car garage offers ample storage or workspace options. Step out back to enjoy the porch, a perfect setting for relaxing or hosting during the warmer months. Whether you are looking for a primary residence or a solid investment, this property offers location, updates, and long-term potential.

2. 2026-04-06
   listed $129,900 Active 864-char remark

   Show marketing remark (864 chars)

   Charming two-bedroom home located in the Dunkirk School District, offering a great combination of comfort and value. This property features low-maintenance vinyl siding and several newer replacement windows, helping improve efficiency while minimizing upkeep. Inside, you will find a formal dining room that provides an ideal space for both everyday living and entertaining. A key highlight is the first-floor laundry, delivering added convenience and functional living. The home also includes a new hot water tank, giving peace of mind to the next owner. A one-and-a-half-car garage offers ample storage or workspace options. Step out back to enjoy the porch, a perfect setting for relaxing or hosting during the warmer months. Whether you are looking for a primary residence or a solid investment, this property offers location, updates, and long-term potential.

3. 2020-07-15
   soldstatus $75,000 Closed Sale or Rented 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP HERE. .. THIS HOME HAS BEEN LOVINGLY CARED FOR, FOR 36 YEARS, NOW ITS TIME TO BE WITH THE GRAND KIDS. .. .ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH SNACK BAR AND PANTRY. .. DINING ROOM. .. COVERED FRONT PORCH. .. NICE DECK OFF OF THE KITCHEN. .. CONCRETE DRIVEWAY , PATIO WITH BRICK BARBECUE IN YARD. .. .NICELY FINISHED GARAGE WITH SCREENED DOOR FOR YOUR SUMMER TIME ENJOYMENT. .. NICELY LANDSCAPED YARD!

4. 2020-07-15
   soldstatus $79,500

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP HERE. .. THIS HOME HAS BEEN LOVINGLY CARED FOR, FOR 36 YEARS, NOW ITS TIME TO BE WITH THE GRAND KIDS. .. .ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH SNACK BAR AND PANTRY. .. DINING ROOM. .. COVERED FRONT PORCH. .. NICE DECK OFF OF THE KITCHEN. .. CONCRETE DRIVEWAY , PATIO WITH BRICK BARBECUE IN YARD. .. .NICELY FINISHED GARAGE WITH SCREENED DOOR FOR YOUR SUMMER TIME ENJOYMENT. .. NICELY LANDSCAPED YARD!

5. 2020-06-05
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP HERE. .. THIS HOME HAS BEEN LOVINGLY CARED FOR, FOR 36 YEARS, NOW ITS TIME TO BE WITH THE GRAND KIDS. .. .ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH SNACK BAR AND PANTRY. .. DINING ROOM. .. COVERED FRONT PORCH. .. NICE DECK OFF OF THE KITCHEN. .. CONCRETE DRIVEWAY , PATIO WITH BRICK BARBECUE IN YARD. .. .NICELY FINISHED GARAGE WITH SCREENED DOOR FOR YOUR SUMMER TIME ENJOYMENT. .. NICELY LANDSCAPED YARD!

6. 2020-03-19
   listed $79,900 Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP HERE. .. THIS HOME HAS BEEN LOVINGLY CARED FOR, FOR 36 YEARS, NOW ITS TIME TO BE WITH THE GRAND KIDS. .. .ATTRACTIVE KITCHEN WITH SNACK BAR AND PANTRY. .. DINING ROOM. .. COVERED FRONT PORCH. .. NICE DECK OFF OF THE KITCHEN. .. CONCRETE DRIVEWAY , PATIO WITH BRICK BARBECUE IN YARD. .. .NICELY FINISHED GARAGE WITH SCREENED DOOR FOR YOUR SUMMER TIME ENJOYMENT. .. NICELY LANDSCAPED YARD!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 44.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,165
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $20/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+62.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2020-07-15 Sold (MLS) $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-06-05 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-03-19 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,165 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.