517 Crawford Dr · Burleson, TX 76028

$420,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2000 7,013 sqft lot Est $488k · 14% under $45/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful 5 bedroom home ready for new owners located in Joshua ISD! Immaculate curb appeal includes pristine landscaping & a lovely patio area to be enjoyed under the cool shade trees. The main living area is open concept & boasts hard surface flooring & crown molding details. The dark cabinetry in the kitchen is complemented nicely by the neutral granite counters & tile backsplash. You'll love the SS appliances, dual dining spaces & how it opens out to the family room. Main floor primary bedroom features a great view to the backyard & a lovely 5-piece ensuite complete with a double vanity, soaking tub & walk-in closet. Upstairs is home to brand new carpet, 4 bedrooms, a full bath & a generous loft that lends itself to being the perfect game room. The backyard offers an amazing patio extending the full length of the house, perfect for outdoor living or dining! Click the Virtual Tour link to view the 3D tour.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Two living areas
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Lakewood Ph Mt Valley 01 Country; GPS-friendly directions
• Financial info: Financing options: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Association management fees included; Association fee $270 semi-annually; HOA managed by Goodwill and Company

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car attached garage; Driveway; Garage door opener; Garage faces front; 2-car single garage door
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Standard power (electric)
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property; Preowned (built in 2000); Not attached to another property
• Construction: Brick and siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2000
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Wood fencing in back yard; All-weather road access; Alley and asphalt access; Curbs; Community mailbox

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Decorative lighting and chandelier; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $414k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,084/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 1117% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $413,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $488,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2605 Steve St	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,589 (-6%)	5mo	$474,900	$183	60
217 Hawks Ridge Trl	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,453 (-11%)	0mo	$435,000	$177	58
305 Aurora Hills Trl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,527 (-8%)	4mo	$449,900	$178	58
2613 Lee St	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,646 (-4%)	6mo	$499,900	$189	57
2605 Lila St	0.46mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,873 (+5%)	3mo	$524,900	$183	55
328 Alina St	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,589 (-6%)	3mo	$484,990	$187	55
2739 Chimney Rock Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5	3,034 (+11%)	3mo	$523,500	$173	54
2636 Lila St	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,527 (-8%)	1mo	$499,900	$198	53
200 Hawks Ridge Trl	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,384 (-13%)	3mo	$398,000	$167	52
300 Ben Thomas St	0.55mi	4/2.5	3,118 (+14%)	1mo	$449,999	$144	48
2609 Steve St	0.52mi	4/3.5	3,124 (+14%)	0mo	$549,900	$176	46
320 Ben Thomas St	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,336 (-15%)	4mo	$415,000	$178	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-17,885
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $32,892
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 687
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$713 /mo · $8,557/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,068
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,969

Max offer price $420,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,119	-5% $1,000	+0% $881	+5% $762	+10% $643
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $680	+0% $881	+5% $1,082	+10% $1,283
Rate	-1.0pp $1,093	-0.5pp $988	base $881	+0.5pp $772	+1.0pp $662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2435 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	3.0	3064	$2,950	$0.96	0d	1	0.46mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Unit 1287532P Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2507	$16,227	$6.47	23d	1	0.47mi
2516 Castle Pines Dr Burleson, TX	5.0	3.0	2518	$8,950	$3.55	25d	1	0.47mi
2752 Elmwood Dr Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,800	$1.38	45d	1	0.50mi
1733 Trinity St Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	2213	$4,900	$2.21	4d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $420,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $420,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,557 · $713/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,557 · $713/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$8,557
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,881
• − Management: −$4,881
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable income: $4,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $9,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2023-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-01-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-11-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-11-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-11-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-11-04 Price Changed $367,000 NTREIS
• 2022-10-19 Price Changed $374,900 NTREIS
• 2022-10-11 Price Changed $384,900 NTREIS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $389,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-02 Listed $399,900 NTREIS
• 2022-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-06-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-06-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-06-03 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2006-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,557 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.