8315 Vacek Crossing Way · Fairchilds, TX 77469

$279,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 $200/sqft · at area comps Est $270k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING Introducing the Enterprise floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,401 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout highlights a modern kitchen that connects seamlessly to the dining and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Vacek Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Fairchilds — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,450 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1345 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $204,804 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,094
• List price: $279,600
• Delta: 3.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-58,583
• Equity at exit: $41,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-83,833
• Equity at exit: $24,175

Cash invested: $78,288 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1345
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $875/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,191

Max offer price $259,682

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-34	+0% $-113	+5% $-192	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-194	+0% $-113	+5% $-32	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-42	base $-113	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,900
• Closing costs: $8,388
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10714 Gossypium Ct Richmond, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1727	$1,780	$1.03	23d	1	0.16mi
7607 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,825	$1.64	0d	1	0.70mi
7603 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,040	$1.15	0d	1	0.71mi
7539 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,850	$1.30	45d	1	0.73mi
7535 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,827	$1.64	45d	1	0.74mi
7523 Tipton Meadow Way Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,850	$1.30	45d	1	0.76mi
10718 Millet Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1862	$1,900	$1.02	23d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $279,600 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $279,600 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,990 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   price $239,990 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING Introducing the Enterprise floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,401 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout highlights a modern kitchen that connects seamlessly to the dining and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Vacek Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

5. 2026-05-08
   listed $244,990 Active 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   You enter the home from the covered porch into the foyer, where a coat closet and access to the two-car garage welcome you. Continuing through the hallway, you step into the open family room, dining area, and kitchen. Off the dining area are two additional bedrooms that share a full bath, along with a conveniently located laundry room. Just off the kitchen, you'll find a covered back patio perfect for outdoor living, as well as the primary bedroom featuring a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

6. 2026-04-14
   price $244,990 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING Introducing the Enterprise floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,401 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout highlights a modern kitchen that connects seamlessly to the dining and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Vacek Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

7. 2026-04-14
   listed $279,600 Active 861-char remark

   Show marketing remark (861 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING Introducing the Enterprise floorplan, a well designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,401 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout highlights a modern kitchen that connects seamlessly to the dining and living areas, creating an inviting flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while the private primary suite includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this thoughtfully planned design in Vacek Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $875 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,117 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,241/yr (+$353/mo · 484.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,662
• − Property taxes: −$875
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,134
• Taxable loss: −$6,325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,518
• After-tax cash flow: $165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fairchilds

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1450
• US rank: #24783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $279,600 HARMLS