9 Lower Newtown Rd · Waterford, NY 12188

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1926 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic old home in a beautiful natural setting, with so many updates over the past year including a new roof, masonry touchups, driveway & landscaping. This well-maintained 4 bed, 2 bath home also features a spacious eat-in kitchen with newer cabinetry & SS appliances, large living room, mudroom with wood stove, and 1st floor laundry room/storage area. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms & second full bath, put in around 10 years ago. Hot air furnace, newer hot water tank, updated electric Ecobee Smart Thermostat/Lights are among a few more improvements the current owner has made. Beautiful, park like backyard with shed, surrounded by trees, wildflowers & the McDonald Creek/Champlain Canal path. Waterford mailing, Halfmoon taxes, Mechanicville schools. Playset can stay. A great place to call home! Very Good Condition

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1926

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in NY, #4,586 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Mechanicville City School District (rural): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #270 of 590 in NY (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mechanicville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade C, #905 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 600 students, 52% FRL); Mechanicville Junior/Senior High School (math 60% / reading 62%, grade C+, #843 of 1,100 statewide, top 77%, 746 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.48%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $491,980
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
721 Hudson River Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (-5%)	5mo	$467,000	$340	66
733 Hudson River Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-15%)	5mo	$310,000	$252	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $15,741
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $67,631
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12188

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,745/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,541

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $743	-5% $698	+0% $652	+5% $607	+10% $562
Rent	-10% $465	-5% $559	+0% $652	+5% $746	+10% $839
Rate	-1.0pp $733	-0.5pp $693	base $652	+0.5pp $611	+1.0pp $569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 2021-02-26
   soldstatus $195,000
4. 2021-02-17
   soldstatus $195,000 Closed (Final Sale) 833-char remark

   Show marketing remark (833 chars)

   Classic old home in a beautiful natural setting, with so many updates over the past year including a new roof, masonry touchups, driveway & landscaping. This well-maintained 4 bed, 2 bath home also features a spacious eat-in kitchen with newer cabinetry & SS appliances, large living room, mudroom with wood stove, and 1st floor laundry room/storage area. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms & second full bath, put in around 10 years ago. Hot air furnace, newer hot water tank, updated electric Ecobee Smart Thermostat/Lights are among a few more improvements the current owner has made. Beautiful, park like backyard with shed, surrounded by trees, wildflowers & the McDonald Creek/Champlain Canal path. Waterford mailing, Halfmoon taxes, Mechanicville schools. Playset can stay. A great place to call home! Very Good Condition

5. 2020-11-28
   status Pend (Under Cntr) 833-char remark

   Show marketing remark (833 chars)

   Classic old home in a beautiful natural setting, with so many updates over the past year including a new roof, masonry touchups, driveway & landscaping. This well-maintained 4 bed, 2 bath home also features a spacious eat-in kitchen with newer cabinetry & SS appliances, large living room, mudroom with wood stove, and 1st floor laundry room/storage area. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms & second full bath, put in around 10 years ago. Hot air furnace, newer hot water tank, updated electric Ecobee Smart Thermostat/Lights are among a few more improvements the current owner has made. Beautiful, park like backyard with shed, surrounded by trees, wildflowers & the McDonald Creek/Champlain Canal path. Waterford mailing, Halfmoon taxes, Mechanicville schools. Playset can stay. A great place to call home! Very Good Condition

6. 2020-11-06
   price $199,900 833-char remark

   Show marketing remark (833 chars)

   Classic old home in a beautiful natural setting, with so many updates over the past year including a new roof, masonry touchups, driveway & landscaping. This well-maintained 4 bed, 2 bath home also features a spacious eat-in kitchen with newer cabinetry & SS appliances, large living room, mudroom with wood stove, and 1st floor laundry room/storage area. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms & second full bath, put in around 10 years ago. Hot air furnace, newer hot water tank, updated electric Ecobee Smart Thermostat/Lights are among a few more improvements the current owner has made. Beautiful, park like backyard with shed, surrounded by trees, wildflowers & the McDonald Creek/Champlain Canal path. Waterford mailing, Halfmoon taxes, Mechanicville schools. Playset can stay. A great place to call home! Very Good Condition

7. 2020-10-15
   listed $219,900 New 833-char remark

   Show marketing remark (833 chars)

   Classic old home in a beautiful natural setting, with so many updates over the past year including a new roof, masonry touchups, driveway & landscaping. This well-maintained 4 bed, 2 bath home also features a spacious eat-in kitchen with newer cabinetry & SS appliances, large living room, mudroom with wood stove, and 1st floor laundry room/storage area. Upstairs are 4 bedrooms & second full bath, put in around 10 years ago. Hot air furnace, newer hot water tank, updated electric Ecobee Smart Thermostat/Lights are among a few more improvements the current owner has made. Beautiful, park like backyard with shed, surrounded by trees, wildflowers & the McDonald Creek/Champlain Canal path. Waterford mailing, Halfmoon taxes, Mechanicville schools. Playset can stay. A great place to call home! Very Good Condition

8. 2009-10-22
   soldstatus $33,580 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Seller REQUIRES a prequal letter - rehab loan or proof of funds. Custom built with modern kitchen & bath, double LvRm, needs work.repairs to heating and electrical systems. MOLD warning 2nd flr front bdrm. Private setting with water views of Champlain Central Canal and Park. Basement access under deck. Fair Condition

9. 2009-07-01
   historical 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   Seller REQUIRES a prequal letter - rehab loan or proof of funds. Custom built with modern kitchen & bath, double LvRm, needs work.repairs to heating and electrical systems. MOLD warning 2nd flr front bdrm. Private setting with water views of Champlain Central Canal and Park. Basement access under deck. Fair Condition

10. 2009-03-09
    listed $49,500 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    Seller REQUIRES a prequal letter - rehab loan or proof of funds. Custom built with modern kitchen & bath, double LvRm, needs work.repairs to heating and electrical systems. MOLD warning 2nd flr front bdrm. Private setting with water views of Champlain Central Canal and Park. Basement access under deck. Fair Condition

11. 2005-07-11
    soldstatus $143,100
12. 2005-06-24
    soldstatus $143,100
13. 2005-06-17
    soldstatus $143,100
14. 2005-03-18
    historical
15. 2005-03-18
    historical
16. 2005-01-23
    listed $135,000
17. 2004-08-17
    listed $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,745 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,745 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,745
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $5,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $6,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mechanicville City School District
• NCES district ID: 3618900
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,701
• Composite: 49.33/100
• National rank: #2021
• State rank: #270 of 590 in NY

Livability — Waterford

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4586

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 10,988
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,988
• Household income: $92,279
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 129.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 4% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.55%
• Current HPI: 316.5619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+18.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $159,900 Global MLS
• 2021-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-17 Sold (MLS) $195,000 Global MLS
• 2020-11-28 Pending — Global MLS
• 2020-11-06 Price Changed $199,900 Global MLS
• 2020-10-15 Listed $219,900 Global MLS
• 2009-10-22 Sold (MLS) $33,580 Global MLS
• 2009-07-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2009-03-09 Listed $49,500 Global MLS
• 2005-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $143,100 Public Records
• 2005-06-24 Sold (MLS) $143,100 Global MLS
• 2005-06-17 Sold (MLS) $143,100 Global MLS
• 2005-03-18 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2005-03-18 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2005-01-23 Listed $135,000 Global MLS
• 2004-08-17 Listed $135,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,745 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.