112 Upper 7 Ponds Rd · Water Mill, NY 11976

$2,495,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1993 0.43 ac lot $1169/sqft · at area comps Est $2540k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this private Water Mill retreat set on just over a half acre of beautifully mature landscaping. This charming 4 bedroom, 3 full bath home offers a serene setting with exceptional potential, perfect as is or ready for thoughtful renovation and expansion. The first floor primary suite features a spacious layout and an ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and convenience. An open kitchen and living area create an inviting flow for effortless entertaining and relaxed everyday living. Currently a bonus room being used as study that can be made into a bedroom. Large windows bring in abundant natural light and showcase the lush surroundings. Step outside to your own secluded oasis with a heated pool, expansive decking, and generous outdoor space ideal for lounging, dining, and soaking up the Hamptons sun all wrapped in greenery for complete privacy. Whether you’re looking for a move in ready getaway or a property to reimagine, this Water Mill gem offers endless possibilities in a highly desirable location.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Bonus room
• Living area

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LIVING AREA
• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24k ($287k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.20M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $52,089/mo this rent would consume 347% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $233k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $215k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$373k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,195,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.07%
• DSCR: 2.83
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,539,996
• List price: $2,495,000
• Delta: -1.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $2,928,211
• Equity at exit: $2,003,624

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.55×
• Total profit: $8,068,247
• Equity at exit: $4,084,958

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $52,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,119 /mo · $37,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,939
• Net cashflow: $23,908

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,826

Max offer price $2,495,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Millfarm Ln Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2648	$50,000	$18.88	44d	1	0.37mi
3 Meadowgrass Ln Southampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1434	$84,000	$58.58	44d	1	0.86mi
4 Carriage Ln Southampton, NY	4.0	4.0	3000	$72,000	$24.00	44d	1	0.91mi
520 Hampton Rd #18 Southampton, NY	3.0	3.5	2250	$99,000	$44.00	44d	1	1.00mi
10 Leland Ln #19 Southampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1400	$30,000	$21.43	44d	1	1.17mi
82 Powell Ave Southampton, NY	4.0	4.0	2414	$70,000	$29.00	24d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 178 DOM
15. 2025-12-04
    price $2,495,000 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    Discover this private Water Mill retreat set on just over a half acre of beautifully mature landscaping. This charming 4 bedroom, 3 full bath home offers a serene setting with exceptional potential, perfect as is or ready for thoughtful renovation and expansion. The first floor primary suite features a spacious layout and an ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and convenience. An open kitchen and living area create an inviting flow for effortless entertaining and relaxed everyday living. Currently a bonus room being used as study that can be made into a bedroom. Large windows bring in abundant natural light and showcase the lush surroundings. Step outside to your own secluded oasis with a heated pool, expansive decking, and generous outdoor space ideal for lounging, dining, and soaking up the Hamptons sun all wrapped in greenery for complete privacy. Whether you’re looking for a move in ready getaway or a property to reimagine, this Water Mill gem offers endless possibilities in a highly desirable location.

16. 2025-12-04
    listed $249,500 Active 1028-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1028 chars)

    Discover this private Water Mill retreat set on just over a half acre of beautifully mature landscaping. This charming 4 bedroom, 3 full bath home offers a serene setting with exceptional potential, perfect as is or ready for thoughtful renovation and expansion. The first floor primary suite features a spacious layout and an ensuite bathroom, providing comfort and convenience. An open kitchen and living area create an inviting flow for effortless entertaining and relaxed everyday living. Currently a bonus room being used as study that can be made into a bedroom. Large windows bring in abundant natural light and showcase the lush surroundings. Step outside to your own secluded oasis with a heated pool, expansive decking, and generous outdoor space ideal for lounging, dining, and soaking up the Hamptons sun all wrapped in greenery for complete privacy. Whether you’re looking for a move in ready getaway or a property to reimagine, this Water Mill gem offers endless possibilities in a highly desirable location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $625,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$37,425
• − Insurance: −$12,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$50,006
• − Management: −$50,006
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable income: $262,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$63,077
• After-tax cash flow: $223,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $249,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,955 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.